Mr. Obama Is about to Thank You for Your Vote

The future of health care in America, or at least the cost of insurance, is beginning to become clear. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has released a report that enables some conclusions to be drawn, and although news reports were giddily reporting that premiums for people who must buy their own insurance will be "sixteen percent lower than expected," that phrase is meaningless happy talk, according to Avik Roy at Forbes magazine. In fact, when you run the numbers, as Roy has done, it turns out that:

Based on a Manhattan Institute analysis of the HHS numbers, Obamacare will increase underlying insurance rates for younger men by an average of 97 to 99 percent, and for younger women by an average of 55 to 62 percent. Worst off is North Carolina, which will see individual-market rates triple for women, and quadruple for men.

These are national averages, but in the original article Roy breaks down the expected increase for each state for 27 and 40 year old males and females. In some states the increase is negligible, in others like Nebraska and North Carolina it's over 250%. Males will be especially hard hit in most states.

The administration has promised subsidies to lower income people to help them with the cost of their premiums but Roy shows that the subsidies won't help much:

However, the overall results make clear that most people will not receive enough in subsidies to counteract the degree to which Obamacare drives premiums upward. Remember that nearly two-thirds of the uninsured are under the age of 40. And that young and healthy people are essential to Obamacare; unless these individuals are willing to pay more for health insurance to subsidize everyone else, the exchanges will not serve the goal of providing coverage to the uninsured.

Roy closes with this:

For months, we’ve heard about how Obamacare’s trillions in health care subsidies were going to save America from rate shock. It’s not true. If you shop for coverage on your own, you’re likely to see your rates go up, even after accounting for the impact of pre-existing conditions, even after accounting for the impact of subsidies.

The Obama administration knows this, which is why its 15-page report makes no mention of premiums for insurance available on today’s market. Silence, they say, speaks louder than words. HHS’ silence on the difference between Obamacare’s insurance premiums and those available today tell you everything you need to know. Rates are going higher. And if you’re healthy, or you’re young, the Obama administration expects you to do your duty and pay up.

In other words, the claim that premiums are going to be "lower than expected" is small comfort. They're still going up and for some people the increase is going to look like that global warming hockey stick.

And remember that, courtesy of the august jurists on our nation's highest court, you are now required by your government to purchase insurance whether you want it or not, whether you think you need it or not. If you don't purchase it you'll be fined by the good folks at the IRS. The Supreme Court decided to call the fine a "tax" in order to keep it constitutional, but, of course, everyone, including the Obama administration, knows that it's a fine.

Check out the link for details on what the premium increases look like in your state and keep something in mind. The people who imposed this on the rest of us, our Democratic Congresspersons, have exempted themselves from it. They won't be paying those higher premiums, but they made sure that you will.