Bad Deal

Amid news that the Obama administration has secured enough Democratic votes in the Senate to sustain an Obama veto of the Senate's expected rejection of his Iran deal, comes word of a report from a committee of retired high ranking military officers who conclude that the deal makes war in the Middle East more likely, not less.

A group of former top military officials and intelligence analysts released a new report Wednesday concluding that the nuclear deal with Iran will threaten American interests and increase the probability of military conflict in the Middle East.

In its report, the Iran Strategy Council wrote that the nuclear deal, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), “will enable Iran to increase support for terrorist and insurgent proxies, aggravate sectarian conflict and trigger both nuclear and conventional proliferation cascades.”

Additionally, the deal will “provide the expansionist regime in Tehran with access to resources, technology and international arms markets required to bolster offensive military capabilities in the vital Persian Gulf region, acquire long-range ballistic missiles and develop other major weapons systems,” the council wrote.

In its report, the council argued that the deal is not an alternative to war with Iran, as many of its supporters have claimed, but would actually make war more likely.

“Contrary to the false choice between support for the JCPOA and military confrontation, the agreement increases both the probability and danger of hostilities with Iran,” the report noted. “Given the deleterious strategic consequences to the United States, implementation of the JCPOA will demand increased political and military engagement in the Middle East that carries significantly greater risks and costs relative to current planning assumptions.”

President Obama has tried, with minimal success, to convince the American people that the alternatives were this deal or war. Most Americans, as well as the majority of their representatives in both the House and the Senate, are unconvinced. Nevertheless, the deal will be official policy at least until Mr. Obama leaves office.

Here are several reasons why this deal will probably lead to war:

1. Iran will cheat and the U.S. and allies will be faced with a decision whether to let them get away with it.
2. The thought of Iran eventually being allowed to have a bomb will trigger a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
3. When Iran cheats, or even if they don't, Israel will try to take out their nuclear facilities.
4. The $100 billion that Iran will get when their assets are unfrozen will enable them to purchase an enormous amount of weaponry which will be supplied to terrorist surrogates.
5. If, per impossible, Iran doesn't cheat, in ten to fifteen years they'll still be able, by the terms of the deal, to produce a bomb in just a few months. They'll then be able to fulfill their acknowledged dream of visiting a nuclear holocaust on Israel, either by missile attack or, more likely, by smuggling bombs into the country and detonating them in Israel's major cities.

What was the alternative if not bombing Iran's nuclear facilities now? Tightening the tourniquet of economic sanctions until Iran was faced with either economic asphyxiation or abandoning their nuclear program. That option, however, required the U.S. to exert worldwide leadership and to exercise an iron will. Unfortunately, it was a lot easier to cut a deal that just postpones the day of reckoning a few years and ensures that in the meantime there'll be a lot more loss of life.