Ukraine had been part of the old Soviet Union until the dissolution of the Union that occurred from 1988 to 1991. As part of the U.S.S.R. some 1800 nuclear weapons were situated on Ukrainian soil, and when the Soviet Union disbanded Ukraine became a sovereign nation in possession of all those nukes.
These weapons included short-range tactical missiles and air-launched cruise missiles. The U.S. wanted to limit the proliferation of nuclear weapons, so in 1994 The U.S., U.K. and Russia signed an agreement in Budapest to guarantee Ukraine that their sovereignty would be protected if they gave up their nuclear weapons, which they did, returning them all to Russia by 1996.
In 2014 Vladimir Putin abrogated the Budapest agreement by invading Crimea, a part of Ukraine. The Obama administration responded by sending the Ukrainians blankets when they needed weapons with which to defend themselves.
Now the Russians want all of Ukraine back and have launched an attack against the rest of the country. This is an historic betrayal on the part of Russia, but the question for Americans is what we will do this time to help Ukraine. So far, President Biden has announced only sanctions against Russia, but what the Ukrainians need are munitions.
To fail once again, to refuse weaponry and other resources to Ukraine now, would be another betrayal on our part of the Budapest memorandum. Mr. Biden has already betrayed Afghanistan, and it would be a terrible thing if he compounded this stain on our national reputation by also abandoning Ukraine.
Perhaps we have indeed been quietly sending Ukraine the resources they need with which to resist the Russians. Mr. Biden hasn't said, but one thing is clear: if we haven't a lot of countries are going to take some lessons from this.
Taiwan and South Korea are going to wonder how steadfast the U.S. will be in honoring the security agreements we have with them.
Countries like North Korea and Iran are going to justify continuing their nuclear programs by pointing to what happened to Ukraine when they gave up their nukes. Other nations like Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Taiwan are going to want to obtain their own nuclear deterrents if they have reason to conclude that the U.S. is not a dependable ally.
By trying to limit nuclear devices and being unable or unwilling to enforce the security guarantees made to Ukraine, we've actually made it more likely, apparently, that those weapons will proliferate.
America is at what scholars call an inflection point. It falls to Mr. Biden to demonstrate to the world that we are not, to paraphrase one letter writer to the Wall Street Journal, a soft, self-obsessed consumer society whose primary concerns are the weather a few hundred years hence, transgender bathrooms, and systemic racism. We must demonstrate that we really do consider ourselves bound by our commitments and that our guarantees really are reliable.
This emphatically does not mean that we should put troops in Ukraine or go to war with Russia, but it does mean that we should do everything else in our power, including arming Ukraine, to dissuade Russia from doing what Putin obviously wants to do. It's still not too late.
China is doubtless watching to see what we'll do, and if we waver, if we shrink from the challenge, Taiwan will surely be next to suffer.
