Are We Headed for Climate Catastrophe?

An article by Chris Melore emphasizes that some of the most dire predictions concerning our changing climate are probably wrong.

By 2100 the change will probably be neither as catastrophic as some models predict nor as benign as others project.

Here's Melore:

Yes, climate change is very real and poses a serious threat to the health of our planet. However, researchers at the University of Colorado-Boulder have a simple message for scientists who focus on the most dire effects of global warming: chill out.

In a letter in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the authors write that many scientists are focusing way too much on the worst-case scenarios of climate change and environmental shifts all around the globe.

While the team notes that these problems are real, constantly preaching impending doom is counter-productive and overshadows the more likely outcomes of global warming.

These more-likely outcomes fall into the middle of the climate change conversation — not good, but also not extremely bad.

CU Boulder assistant professor Matt Burgess, a fellow at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences states that “We shouldn’t overstate or understate our climate future.”

He adds that,

People need to think in terms of gradations, not absolutes. Yes, we need to be aware of the extremes, like climate solutions that get us to net zero before mid century, or on the flipside, global catastrophes.

But it’s what’s in the middle that is more likely. And that deserves more research.

The most extreme scenarios require that,

...all the regions in the world in 2100 would need to have over $100k GDP per capita, with no climate policy the whole century, all-in on coal, despite facing unlivable heat in tropical regions with the warming that that scenario produces. That’s just not realistic.

At the same time, the researchers note that models which come in on the low-end of the climate change spectrum are probably going to be incorrect too. These forecasts predict that temperatures will only rise by less than three degrees by 2100.

“That would be a daunting task to keep us that low—we are almost there now,” Burgess explains.

The new report notes that several experts agree that temperatures will likely rise by 3.6 to 5.4 degrees by 2100. By focusing on these “middle-ground scenarios,” the team says scientists can focus on how that change will impact local communities and humanity as a whole.

This includes the impact of more severe heat waves and the shrinking number of areas seeing snow in the winter.

It'd be good to keep all this in mind when assessing the claims made by our politicians about our climate future, claims that often skew toward the lower extreme (Republicans) or the upper extreme (Democrats).