The senior Russian military leadership is still in shock over the catastrophic losses they suffered since they invaded Ukraine in early 2022. These losses are a military secret in Russia but widely distributed and discussed in the West.It's hard to believe that troop morale can be very high among soldiers forced to fight a defensive war in which they're not really defending their homeland and when they're expected to fight with inadequate supplies and equipment.
So far Russia has lost 279,000 troops (dead, permanently disabled, prisoners, deserters and missing), 13,000 armored vehicles (a third of them tanks), 7,000 artillery systems and over 8,000 unarmored transport vehicles used to carry troops, supplies, fuel, munitions and equipment.
The loss of so many trucks has caused delays in supplying the troops and frequent shortages of essential supplies.
There were also heavy losses of command posts and field headquarters. The Ukrainians have the ability to rapidly locate and attack Russian command posts and headquarters which appear in the combat zone. The heavy and constant losses of these crucial Russian C2 (command and control) facilities led to a breakdown in the ability to effectively deploy and control combat units.
Russian soldiers who were captured complained of supply shortages, the lack of prompt or any treatment for casualties as well as not reporting the names of soldiers who died so their families would know what happened to their kin and claim death benefits. There was such a shortage of officers that troops often went days or weeks without seeing an officer.
Even communication by radio was often absent. While cellphones were forbidden in the combat soldiers, many Russian soldiers had them and used them to report the lack of leadership, supplies and much else in the combat zone. Ukrainian intelligence has long monitored these calls and reported useful information to front line commanders and those who plan attacks with missiles or artillery.
Eventually the Russians did respond to these problems and addressed some of them. Front line command posts were housed in underground bunkers and communications went by wires laid on the ground to troops and higher headquarters. The wire was vulnerable to accidental cuts or deliberate attack.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians had access to encrypted wireless communications via the Starlink satellite system. Russia would sometimes use electronic jammers to disrupt the Starlink signal, but the jammers could not operate long because their jamming signal could be located and attacked by missiles, artillery or even ground attack. Nothing like heavy machine-gun and mortar fire from nearby Ukrainian troops to shut down or destroy a Russian jamming effort.
What would it take for the Russians to simply give up and flee back to Russia, especially as the weather gets colder and wetter?