The analysis comes from Tom Holsinger, a military expert who writes for Strategy Page. Holsinger claims that Russia may well be unable to continue their war of aggression beyond the end of this year.
Holsinger writes:
Hard limits are appearing on Russia’s ability to continue the Ukraine war. It has begun running out of tube artillery (as opposed to rocket artillery) and light armored fighting vehicles (AFVs).Russia cannot sustain the fight without artillary. If they can't replace their losses they'll simply have to retreat.
The artillery shortage is because tube artillery barrels are wearing out, while the light AFV shortage is because so many have been lost in combat.
Russia’s stocks of self-propelled tube artillery pieces were eliminated by combat losses in the Ukraine, worn-out barrels or exploded from firing with worn-out barrels, and were replaced by towed artillery from its reserve stocks.
Now the Russians have lost, worn out or almost worn out everything but their oldest reserve tube artillery, 50+ year-old 122mm towed guns of which they allegedly had about 4,000 in 2021.
These are Russia’s last artillery reserve, are being put into service now and, when those are worn out this year, Russia’s tube artillery park will be reduced to their current production of about 200 yearly tube artillery pieces. At that point Russia can no longer continue the war unless their 2024 production increases to at least 2000 a year.
Holsinger goes on to explain why these artillery barrels wear out and why it'll be so hard for Russia to replace them. He also discusses the significance of the loss of armored fighting vehicles.
It's an interesting article and it allows for a glimmer of optimism that if Ukraine can hold out for the next nine months, and if the West supplies the Ukrainians with weaponry, ammunition and other necessities, Russia will be in a militarily untenable position.