Recent days have brought us two very significant developments in the war against al Qaida. The first was the interception of a letter written to al Zarqawi by a mid-level commander named al Qusaymi who paints a bleak picture of al Qaida's situation in Iraq.
Bill Roggio at The Fourth Rail has some outstanding commentary on the letter. After analyzing its contents he concludes with this:
Assuming this letter is authentic, the picture al-Qusaymi draws of the current state of al Qaeda in Iraq is not positive [for al Qaeda, that is]. Their soldier's morale is very low and for good reason. They are being mistreated by their own leaders, they feel they are being sacrificed without any positive effects on the outcome, they do not feel they have direction, and some are deserting. No doubt incidents like the failed and costly assaults on Abu Ghraib and Camp Gannon contribute to the feelings of being thrown to the wolves.
There is great distrust between local commanders and Zarqawi's inner circle. al-Qusaymi asks to meet Zarqawi face to face as he does not trust his lieutenants. This can stem from several sources, the main one being that al-Qusaymi is not impressed with their command decisions. The recent spate of arrests of Zarqawi's lieutenants means that less experienced and qualified commanders rise through the ranks. Despite media portrayal that al Qaeda has a limitless supply of experienced operatives and leaders, organizations do not gain strength by losing their best and most seasoned leaders, particularly while under fire.
Al-Qusaymi is writing this letter to attempt to correct problems within al Qaeda's organization. His capture should be a high priority for the Coalition, as he is both insightful and brave enough to approach Zarqawi to address some perceived fundamental flaws in the organization. al-Qusaymi will have detailed information on the weaknesses of al Qaeda which can be exploited, as well as operational information on the makeup and organization of terror cells and their leaders. Removing the smart leaders and allowing the poor ones to remain in place is an effective way to destroy terrorist organizations, as the poor leaders will make bad decisions that will likely alienate both their own recruits and the Iraqi people.
The overall message of al-Qusaymi's letter to Zarqawi is supported by past letters intercepted or published on the web by al Qaeda. Al Qaeda leaders have complained that the Muslim world is shirking jihad and not supporting the fight in Iraq, indicated there are manpower issues in Iraq and Afghanistan and recruiting problems. The lack of quality recruits combined with the Coalition's dismantling of the organization and the arrest of senior leaders is having a negative affect on the morale of both the foot soldiers and leadership of al Qaeda in Iraq. This letter is further evidence that Iraq has provided for the opportunity to deal an operational defeat to al Qaeda.
The other development is the capture announced yesterday of Abu Farj Farj al Liby, bin Laden's third in command. One wonders if his location wasn't gleaned from al Zarqawi's laptop. In any event, he himself should prove to be a treasure trove of information on the whereabouts and operations of other al Qaida bigwigs, perhaps of bin Laden himself and his second in command Ayman al Zarwahri.
Rolling up this terrorist organization is like rolling a snowball down a mountain. Pretty soon it gathers so much momentum that it becomes an avalanche. Each low-level prisoner has information that leads to others which in turn leads to others until top people are being smoked out. When the leadership is interrogated the information inflow takes a huge leap and the pace of shutting down terror operations accelerates even more.
One thing about all this that's important to remember. It's hard to imagine how any of it would have happened had we not invaded Iraq. When the administration told us that draining that swamp was essential to winning the war on terror, it was right. Had we not invaded Iraq, Saddam would bestride the Middle East like the mythical colossus, few if any of the terrorists who've been apprehended would today be in custody, Libya would still be producing nuclear weapons, Syria would still be in Lebanon, Pakistan would be an indifferent ally in the WOT, and the Arab world would be smelling the scent of victory over a decadent west which lacked the will to defend itself against the armies of Allah.
It's good to remind ourselves every now and then.