The Dover Intelligent Design trial is over and we await judge John Jones' ruling which is expected by the end of the year. Meanwhile, we offer five predictions concerning these events:
1. Judge Jones will rule against the Dover school board on the grounds that the board did not meet the standards set in the 1971 Supreme Court decision Lemon v. Kurtzman which establishes a three point test for the introduction of putative religious topics into public schools. He will, however, leave the question of the scientific status of ID unresolved.
The Lemon test states that any governmental action with respect to what is taught in public schools:
We predict Judge Jones will find that, based on statements made by board member William Buckingham - which he denied having made - the purpose of introducing ID into the school biology program was not secular.
2. The new Dover school board will certainly not appeal this decision. Even if the judge were to rule in favor of the district the incoming board has promised to remove the ID statement from the biology curriculum, so, as far as Dover Area School District is concerned, this battle is over.
3. Christianity will have received a black eye because of apparent dishonesty on the part of some on the Dover board who identify themselves as Christians but who appeared to lie about statements they had evidently made. They also appeared to prevaricate on the question of the source of funding for the purchase of the books Of Pandas and People.
4. Since the scientific status of ID will have been left unresolved, and since the validity of ID's claims are thankfully independent of the perceived integrity of some of its advocates, it will re-emerge in other districts across the country where school boards will be more careful to ensure that the rationale for implementing it meets the Lemon test. For those with an open mind on this issue, the arguments of ID advocates are simply too compelling to ignore. Like a cork it will keep popping back to the surface no matter how often its critics seek to push it out of sight.
5. With Justices Roberts and Alito on the Supreme Court, the Lemon test, which seems to be fraught with difficulties, will be overturned.
You heard it all here first.