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Thursday, August 5, 2010

Electoral Armageddon

I am by nature a cautious man. I tend to see the glass as half empty. I have a strong disinclination to assume that what is true today will be true tomorrow. I'm keenly aware that in the affairs of men there's much that can go wrong and often does. So it is with considerable reservation that I call your attention to a piece by political analyst Mark McKinnon at The Daily Beast that proffers ten reasons why, in his view, the Democrats are "toast" in November. Perhaps it is so, but I'm not going to start pouring the champagne just yet.

With that caveat in mind here are the first three reasons McKinnon gives for thinking that the GOP is going to kick the donkey's butt three months from now:

1. Red regions are gaining; blue are bleeding. Folks are fleeing stricken states in search of jobs. Based on these population changes, eight states in the more conservative South and West are projected to gain one or more U.S. House seats. With a probable gain of three or four seats, the biggest winner is Texas-not surprising, with its continuing record job growth. Ten states, mostly in the more liberal Northeast, will likely lose one House seat or more.

2. Republicans are pulling ahead in U.S. House races. With a projected gain of more than 40 House seats in November, Republican candidates also have the financial lead in most of the 15 competitive races in which Democratic incumbents aren't running. Republicans only need a net gain of 39 seats to take the "damn gavel" away from Speaker Pelosi.

3. Toss-ups are turning red in the U.S. Senate. The GOP is leading or tied in eight Senate races for seats now held by Democrats, and is ahead in all Republican-held districts. More toss-up states on the map are leaning Republican. And the National Republican Senatorial Committee predicts a change in control of the Senate is now possible in just two election cycles.

Read McKinnon's article for the other seven. The ones that surprised me most have to do with the loss of support for President Obama among both minorities and young people. To be sure the erosion among blacks is only about ten percent, but it's indicative of the President's inability to achieve a level of competence as president equal to the quality of his rhetoric as a candidate.

RLC