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Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Nuclear Proliferation

The predictable seems to be happening in the Middle East. The failure of the world community to dissuade or prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons has had the completely unsurprising result that other nations in the region have decided it's in their interest to obtain such weapons for themselves. The newest proud owner of these weapons of mass death, if this report is correct, is Saudi Arabia which has allegedly purchased a pair of warheads from Pakistan:
With an eye on the nuclear arms race led by its neighbor Iran, Saudi Arabia has arranged to have available for its use two Pakistani nuclear bombs or guided missile warheads, debkafile's military and intelligence sources reveal. They are most probably held in Pakistan's nuclear air base at Kamra in the northern district of Attock. Pakistan has already sent the desert kingdom its latest version of the Ghauri-II missile after extending its range to 2,300 kilometers.

At least two giant Saudi transport planes sporting civilian colors and no insignia are parked permanently at Pakistan's Kamra base with air crews on standby. They will fly the nuclear weapons home upon receipt of a double coded signal from King Abdullah and the Director of General Intelligence Prince Muqrin bin Abdel Aziz. A single signal would not be enough.
I haven't seen this report anywhere else so it may not be true, but if it is, it's very troubling.

We still have the chance to avoid this proliferation by preventing Iran from building its own nukes, but so far we've chosen half-measures and dithering. Now the whole region is on the brink of becoming nuclearized. How many dictatorships will have nuclear weapons before someone decides to use them? As North Korea becomes more nuclearized and more bellicose, how long will it be before Japan and South Korea decide that they better arm themselves as well? Will we also stand aside while Venezuela purchases these weapons?

I'm not saying that the international community should use military strikes to halt Iran's weapons program, but it should at some point be an option. War is a terrible thing with manifold unforeseeable consequences, but sometimes the lack of war can also be a terrible thing. In the case of declining to decisively prevent Iran and North Korea from developing nuclear weapons the consequences are pretty much predictable. Within a decade or so everyone will have them and someone will eventually use them.