The GOP Dilemma

The Republican party appears to be looking ahead to a very dispiriting fourteen months, faced, as they are, with several possible scenarios to the upcoming election season, all of which are bad. Here are three:

• Trump wins the nomination and many Republicans and Independents simply refuse to vote for him in the general, and the Democrats breeze to another four years, probably with control of both Houses of Congress.
• Trump loses the nomination and much of his base just sits out the general election while Trump trashes whoever the nominee of the party happens to be, and the Democrats breeze to another four years, probably with control of both Houses of Congress.
• Trump loses the nomination, but the winner of the primary vows, if he or she wins the presidency, to pardon Trump, relieve him of the his legal jeopardy, and thus gain Trump's enthusiastic support.

Surely the GOP pooh-bahs are hoping for this last outcome, but it strikes me as the least likely of the three. Trump appears to have a lock on the nomination so the first option is the most probable, but even if he should lose and not trash the winner, it's hard to imagine him enthusiastically campaigning for whomever the winner is. At least, it's hard to imagine him campaigning strenuously enough to persuade the millions of his adoring supporters to get excited for someone other than him.

It could be that Trump wins the primary and also wins the presidency in November of 2024, but in order for that to occur something unforeseen has to happen. Perhaps a liberal third party candidate makes a significant dent in the Democrats' support. Perhaps Joe Biden somehow self-destructs just before the election and before the Democrats can come up with a substitute. Perhaps the economy goes into a nosedive.

But failing something like this transpiring it's hard to see at this point how the Republicans avoid self-immolation. Even so, I devoutly hope I'm wrong.