Strategy Page
offers a helpful update on the situation in Ukraine. Here are a few highlights:
Russian forces have been in Ukraine for 18 months and Russia refuses to disclose any information on the losses. Ukraine has a similar policy about Ukrainian losses but will share what they believe the Russians have lost so far, which is 250,000 Russian troops dead, badly wounded (disabled), deserted or captured. Weapon and equipment losses includes 4,300 tanks and 8,500 other armored vehicles, 5,300 mortars or howitzers as well as 729 MLRS (multiple launch rocket systems), 490 air defense systems, 315 fixed wing aircraft and 316 helicopters as well as 4,300 UAVs and 18 ships of all sizes.
These heavy Russian losses were the result of poorly trained and led Russian troops being on the offensive much of the time. Corruption in the Defense Ministry and army left Russian troops in Ukraine with shortages of supplies, replacements and even munitions.
It's difficult to recall how powerful the Russian army seemed just a few years ago. It turns out that they had apparently built a
Potemkin military. Someone once described Russia, which manufactures nothing anything anyone wants and produces only the oil they can extract from the earth, as a gas station with nuclear weapons, and so it seems.
Ukrainian intelligence reported that the Russian government is considering mobilizing another 450,000 personnel in a possible second major mobilization. Inside Russia the government is having a hard time finding many military-age men for the war in Ukraine. This has led Russian mobilization officials to take desperate measures, like forcing migrant workers from Central Asia to sign up for military service if they want Russian citizenship and the right to seek work in Russia.
Mobilization efforts are still seeking volunteers from men in prison. The military has found that these prison recruits are unreliable and often dangerous to local Russian civilians and their own officers.
Russia never had a surfeit of officers, and attrition from both Ukrainian fighters as well as disgruntled Russian enlisted men has exacerbated the problem.
Russian-language Internet chatter about the war often mentions the officer shortage and how it makes matters worse for Russian troops, especially new ones. For military-age men the threat of being mobilized and sent to Ukraine is considered a death sentence, or at least a situation that is extremely risky.
Since the invasion Russia has enacted a law that forbids military age men from leaving the country. The growing number of Russian men showing up illegally in NATO and Central Asian countries and asking for asylum is a problem few expected.
Putin's hope, evidently, is that his defenses will be able to bog the Ukrainian counter-offensive down long enough to cause Western nations to tire of supplying Ukraine with weaponry and other supplies in what they would perceive to be an endless stalemate. If the West's spigot is cut off Putin will be able to call for a cease-fire and essentially be permitted by Ukraine's "allies" to retain whatever he's been able to grab since 2014. Ukraine would be powerless to do anything much about it.