War With Iran Is Inevitable

News reports tell us that President Biden has just unfrozen another $10 billion dollars for the Iranians. This is an unfathomable move given that Iran will almost certainly use the money to further their nuclear weapons development program and to build up organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas, that is if Hamas survives their war with Israel.

Meanwhile, Tom Holsinger, writing at Strategy Page, declares that war with Iran is inevitable. Here's an excerpt:

The major effect of Hamas’ attack on Israel is that it makes an Israeli pre-emptive nuclear attack on Iran inevitable, at least against Iran’s nuclear weapons program and probably also its oil export facilities. This will happen when Iran gets close to developing nuclear weapons carried by ballistic missiles.

Given that Gaza’s Iranian proxy nutball Hamas regime just made a suicidal attack on Israel with Iran’s help, Israel simply cannot chance Iran’s equally nutball mullah regime making its own suicidal nuclear attack on Israel as soon as it has the means to do so. A single nuclear airburst over an Israel city could kill several hundred thousand Israelis.

Even if Israel doesn’t pre-emptively nuke Iran, Israel certainly will if Iran nukes Israel first. It’s really a question of who nukes who first. Israel lacks the non-nuclear means to prevent Iran from developing such weapons. Iran’s nuclear program is now too widespread and dug in.

So, if Israel is going to preempt an Iranian nuclear attack against Israel they have to use nuclear weapons themselves since their conventional arsenal is inadequate to the task. The U.S. could destroy Iran's nuclear weapons facilities with conventional weapons, but Holsinger doubts that we'd ever do it, at least not as long as there's a Democratic administration in the White House.

But an Israeli nuclear attack would spark world-wide nuclear proliferation, which is close to a worst-case scenario for America’s own security.

But, Holsinger writes, a nuclear-armed Iran would cause the same rampant nuclear proliferation even apart from attacking Israel. He's very pessimistic about the future and the wisdom of pouring billions of dollars into Iran:

The open favoritism and funding of Iran by the Obama and Biden administrations, particularly including the latter’s recent easing of oil sanctions on Iran, has created an impending disaster for America’s national security.

The Biden administration exacerbates this by calling on Israel for a cease-fire in Gaza. Nothing could more convince Israel that it must rely only on its own strength concerning the existential threat posed by a nuclear Iran.

How would Iran react to an attack against it by Israel? Iran’s reaction to any major military action against it will be to launch thousands of guided missiles at the oil infrastructure of every other country in the Persian Gulf, excepting possibly Qatar, mining the Persian Gulf, and attacking shipping there. This threat has definitely deterred attacks on Iran so far, but now Israel’s survival depends on nuking Iran before Iran has the capability of nuking Israel.

So, if there is a real good chance that Iran will attempt to stop everyone else’s exports from the Persian Gulf anyway, the downside from anyone else attacking Iran first is diminished.

He thinks the only way to avoid this calamity is for the U.S. to act first:

The United States could avert an Israeli pre-emptive nuclear attack on Iran, and thereby also the ensuing rampant nuclear proliferation, by itself pre-emptively attacking Iran using only conventional weapons.

No Democratic administration would do this because, for them, Iran’s nutball mullah regime are “misunderstood friends” who provide lucrative income opportunities. But a Republican administration might.

What would an American attack look like? It'd almost certainly involve destroying the Karg Island oil depot:

98% of Iran’s oil exports flow through the one port of Karg Island. Iran’s other oil ports lack even 10% of Karg Island’s capacity. Two American cruise missile submarines, carrying 154 non-nuclear Tomahawk cruise missiles each, could completely knock out Karg Island for months, and its production could not be significantly restored in a year.

Iran’s oil income would pretty much cease for long enough that its mullah regime would be overthrown by their own people. And their nuclear weapons program would cease for lack of funding.

Karg Island is the strategic center of gravity in any conflict with Iran. Israel would certainly nuke it in the process of destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Iran would then take down as much of the entire Persian Gulf’s oil production as possible but, if the US launches a preemptive attack, a significant portion of that damage could be reduced by other non-nuclear attacks on Iranian naval forces and missile bases.

And Iran will try this if significantly attacked by anyone, which is pretty much guaranteed given that Israel is as determined to preempt Iran’s nuclear capability as it is to exterminate Hamas in Gaza.

In the not-too-distant future Iran will almost certainly attack or be attacked. If Israel attacks Iran they'll use nuclear weapons and break the tacit global prohibition of the use of these weapons. The Russians will probably then use them against Ukraine, the Chinese will use them against Taiwan, North Korea will use them against Seoul, and Pakistan and India will use them against each other.

It'd be better if the U.S. did the dirty work employing non-nuclear weapons, but it's doubtful that there's a will in Washington for such decisive action.