Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Why His Approval is Improving

These sorts of statistics set Never-Trumpers' teeth on edge, but here they are nonetheless: The Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll has President Trump's approval rating at 50%.

CNN's Jeffrey Toobin, like many of his colleagues, is mystified how the president's approval numbers keep climbing despite a non-stop, 24/7 media campaign to discredit him, a campaign in which the president himself often seems to be gleefully supplying the opposition's ammunition.

Nevertheless, President Trump is, at least for now, more highly favored than his predecessor was at the same point in their presidencies.

Why is that? Former president Bill Clinton's consigliere James Carville famously posted a sign in the Clinton campaign war room to focus campaign workers' minds on the paramount concern of voters in any election. The sign read, "It's the Economy, Stupid."

That sign explained why Clinton served two terms despite being mired in scandal. Much else may be irritating, may be regrettable, may even be deplorable, but as long as the economy is percolating along, a large swath of the American electorate will tolerate a lot of shenanigans from our leaders. We certainly did from Clinton, largely because the economy was doing well in the 1990s, and, to the left's chagrin, we probably will from Trump as well.

To paraphrase Thomas Jefferson in the Declaration of Independence, voters are more disposed to tolerate, as long as evils are tolerable, than to right themselves by abolishing the leaders to which they've become accustomed, and nothing makes "evils" more tolerable than economic prosperity.

Liz Peek at The Hill presents a few economic facts which illustrate the how well things are going under Trump:
  • The most recent IBD/TIPP poll shows Americans' “Economic Optimism” index climbing in August to 58, the second-highest mark since January 2004.
  • In August, respondents rated their “Quality of Life” at 64.2; the previous all-time high was 63.1, recorded in January 2004.The average under President Obama was 53.7.
  • Similarly, the latest reading on “Direction of the Country” hit 50.3, up 13 percent from the prior month, and the highest recorded since 2005. That compares to a 17-year average of 41.6 and an average of 37 during President Obama’s time in office.
  • The “Financial Stress Index,” which has averaged 59.4 since it was created in 2007, plunged in August to 47.4, its lowest level ever. As IBD explained, “People are feeling more secure in their finances than they have at least since the early 2000s.”
Add to this the fact that unemployment is at historic lows (3.9% overall), and that black and Hispanic unemployment are likewise at historic lows while tax revenues are at historic highs, and you have the prescription for a popular presidency.

Given all this, one might speculate that the president's approval numbers would be stratospheric if either a) the Mueller investigation into Russian "collusion" never happened or b) the president canceled his twitter account.

Regardless, the economy is benefiting from Trump's tax cuts and his easing of the onerous Obama-era regulations on individuals and enterprise. It's a wonder that more countries haven't gotten the message, but evidently they haven't.