Most recent Russian losses occurred in Donetsk province where Russian attacks on Bakhmut (for eight months) and Vuhledar (five months) have cost Russia 30,000 dead, hundreds of combat vehicles and several hundred thousand 152mm artillery shells. Most of the fighting and losses were in Bakhmut. Ukrainian losses were far less at about 5,000 dead.Russian losses mnay be even worse than the Strategy Page column indicates. a recent intelligence analysis reported that in the last five months Russia has suffered 100,000 casualties.
These heavy Russian losses and little territorial gain have further demoralized Russian troops so a growing number are refusing to go to Ukraine or fight if they do end up there.
In past wars, soldiers who refused to fight could be killed by their officers to encourage the others. That doesn’t work anymore because the Russian troops are armed and see themselves trapped between two groups (Ukrainians and Russian officers) trying to kill them.
Few veteran, pre-invasion Russian troops are in Ukraine. Most have been killed, disabled by wounds or quit the military. The “quit” option was recently outlawed and is applied to men “mobilized”, rather than conscripted, in the last year to serve a set term (six months or longer) in Ukraine.
Mobilization notices are sent via the Internet and failure to comply is a criminal offense. This encouraged so many young Russians to get out of the country that Russian officials claim the economy is doing so well that there is a labor shortage.
Russian media is banned from reporting the heavy losses but Ukraine is not, and the interviews with Ukrainian troops or Russian soldiers captured in Ukraine are available to many Russians via the Internet or video recordings.
To make matters worse, Ukrainian forces have prepared for another major offensive, which apparently has already started. This offensive is much larger than the one in mid-2022 that cleared the Russian out of Kharkiv, where Ukraine had four brigades attacking. The current one involves nine brigades and is in the southeast.
These brigades are in much better shape than any of the Russian units they will face. Russia has no comparable forces and is using a lot of smaller units that have suffered losses and not had any time to rebuild and train.
Most Russian troops have been recently mobilized and have less training and equipment. Morale is low and most men do not want to be in Ukraine. In contrast, the Ukrainian troops are better prepared and confident that they will prevail.
Ukrainian tactics avoid attacks on heavily defended urban areas and instead surround Russian forces and cut their access to resupply or reinforcements. The reality is that Russia has fewer troops in Ukraine and these have far fewer tanks and other combat vehicles.
The Ukrainian troops are better trained, armed, led and motivated than their Russian adversaries....Ukraine is on the offensive against demoralized Russian troops.
Previous to this Russia was desperate for some kind of victory in Ukraine and this led to the Battle for Bakhmut, a town in Donetsk province. Using frontal assaults, often without artillery or armor support, against entrenched Ukrainian defenders, the Russians suffered horrific losses.
Most of the Russian dead were untrained and poorly led recent recruits. Many of these are convicts, promised a pardon if they agree to fight in Ukraine for six months.
This has changed the Russian goals in Ukraine. A year ago, it was to conquer all of Ukraine, now it is to hang onto the remaining Ukrainian territory they occupy and perhaps grab some more if an opportunity presents itself.
It would be no surprise if, when Ukraine begins its spring counter-offensive, a lot of the Russian troops just surrender or flee. They don't want to fight and they want even less to be killed, why would they offer significant resistance to a highly motivated and well-armed Ukrainian force?
