The Russian economy has not collapsed because of Western sanctions, but those have crippled production of tanks, war planes and all weapons and munitions in general.Putin may not be wrong about this. A lot depends on the success or lack thereof of the expected Ukrainian counter-offensive that's predicted to commence either this month or next.
Russian GDP shrank by about five percent while the number of Russians living below the poverty line reached 60 percent.
These growing economic problems are accompanied by more corruption, especially by officials who distribute emergency aid and manage military mobilization efforts. Russia’s economic situation will grow worse if the Ukrainian offensive is successful and Russian forces have to be reinforced to avoid losing territory.
Russia has little economic support from anyone while Ukraine is backed by the NATO nations, which account for about half the world GDP. Putin is more frequently resorting to psychological warfare, trying to come up with something that will scare NATO into backing off on their support for Ukraine.... For the second year in a row the Russian economy (GDP) is shrinking.
At the same time Russian arms manufacturers are unable to fill many orders because sanctions have halted imports of key components. What can be delivered is more than the government can afford.
There is a similar situation with paying the troops and providing needed bonuses to get volunteers and keep veterans in.
Despite all this, Putin believes time is on his side and that NATO nations will tire of supporting Ukraine and Ukrainians will become less willing to fight if Putin waits long enough.
Those in the know claim that if the counter-offensive gets bogged down in an interminable slog the NATO countries will pressure Ukraine to negotiate with Russia.
One key question is how will Russia respond if there's a stalemate or if Ukraine rolls over the Russian defenses?
