I don't know what, if anything, happened between Herman Cain and the women who are accusing him of various levels of sexually inappropriate behavior.
I do think, though, that anyone who, on the basis of these charges, criticizes Cain should be required to tell us whom they voted for in 1994. If it was Bill Clinton they should be dismissed with a wave of the hand and a shake of the head. They have absolutely no credibility.
No one who supported Bill Clinton or Ted Kennedy or John Edwards has any business criticizing Herman Cain for his alleged indiscretions. Yet the lefties at MSNBC, NBC, CBS and elsewhere are attacking Cain like Piranha attacking a luckless cow that wandered into the river.
The hypocrisy of this feeding frenzy is, in my opinion, the most significant aspect of this whole sordid episode.
I could hardly believe my ears this morning watching MSNBC's Morning Joe and later listening to Martin Bashir and others on the Dylan Ratigan show on the same network.
Morning Joe featured a fine interview with former president Clinton on his ideas for rousing us from our economic malaise, at the end of which Joe Scarborough lamented that people like Mr. Clinton cannot again run for the presidency. This, after his own show and others on the network have ceaselessly made the point, both implicitly and explicitly, that the behavior alleged to have been indulged in by Mr. Cain, behavior no worse than that of Mr. Clinton, by itself disqualifies him as a serious candidate for that office.
The panel on the Dylan Ratigan show was uniformly adamantine that Mr. Cain's indiscretions were beyond what a decent American polity should be expected to tolerate, and yet every one of these folks would, I am willing to bet, vote for Mr. Clinton today were he to run again for the White House.
It never seems to occur to any of these people how hypocritical they look. Or maybe it does, but they don't care.
Offering commentary on current developments and controversies in politics, religion, philosophy, science, education and anything else which attracts our interest.
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
Monday, November 7, 2011
Nature Red in Tooth and Claw
Watch this drama play out among three species of African animals and choose which of the animals is behaving morally and which immorally. But, you might object, morality is an inappropriate category when talking about animals. True enough, but if Darwinistic naturalism is correct then animals is all we are, so why do we think moral categories apply to humans?
If these were three groups of human beings involved in this episode which group would, on the Darwinian view, be behaving morally and which immorally? If Darwinism is correct, if we are simply animals that have evolved bipedalism, then whence comes right and wrong? From where do we get the notion that we are duty-bound to refrain from cruelty and violence?
It will do no good to claim that humans have evolved a moral sense and other animals haven't. If our moral sense is a product of blind, impersonal forces then what obligates to pay it any heed? Just because we have it doesn't mean we need it or should value it. Evolution has equipped us with hair on our faces, but it doesn't follow that we should have it.
Moreover, just as we have evolved the sense that we shouldn't be selfish we have also evolved the desire to be selfish. Why should one of these be privileged over the other? By what standard do we decide which behavior is "right"?
Moral obligation can only exist if it is imposed by a personal, transcendent moral authority. Natural selection and random mutation can't obligate anyone to do anything.
Thus, the naturalist has to either give up his naturalism in order to keep his belief that moral duties exist, or he has to give up his belief in moral duties in order to hold on to his naturalism. What he can't do, and claim to be living rationally, is hold onto both of them.
If these were three groups of human beings involved in this episode which group would, on the Darwinian view, be behaving morally and which immorally? If Darwinism is correct, if we are simply animals that have evolved bipedalism, then whence comes right and wrong? From where do we get the notion that we are duty-bound to refrain from cruelty and violence?
It will do no good to claim that humans have evolved a moral sense and other animals haven't. If our moral sense is a product of blind, impersonal forces then what obligates to pay it any heed? Just because we have it doesn't mean we need it or should value it. Evolution has equipped us with hair on our faces, but it doesn't follow that we should have it.
Moreover, just as we have evolved the sense that we shouldn't be selfish we have also evolved the desire to be selfish. Why should one of these be privileged over the other? By what standard do we decide which behavior is "right"?
Moral obligation can only exist if it is imposed by a personal, transcendent moral authority. Natural selection and random mutation can't obligate anyone to do anything.
Thus, the naturalist has to either give up his naturalism in order to keep his belief that moral duties exist, or he has to give up his belief in moral duties in order to hold on to his naturalism. What he can't do, and claim to be living rationally, is hold onto both of them.
Saturday, November 5, 2011
Approaching Armageddon
Debkafile reports that signs are pointing to an imminent NATO attack on Iran's nuclear installations. Debkafile is not always reliable, but other sources corroborate their story that something is afoot. Here are some key excerpts:
The sudden rush of military news Wednesday, Nov. 2, is part of an orchestrated Western performance to convince Tehran that the US, Britain and Israel are on the verge of a military operation against its nuclear installations. Directed from Washington, it is meant to warn Iran that the play could become a reality show if it refuses to give up the drive for a nuclear weapon. President Barack Obama may then decide to strike Revolutionary Guards Corps targets, the bulwark of the Islamic regime, and its strategic infrastructure, thereby knocking over the key props holding up the regime of the ayatollahs.There are more indications of impending military action at the link. One of the interesting points was this:
Contributing to the menacing climate hanging over Iran were four headline events involving Israel – all on the same Wednesday: Israel conducted a successful test launch of a new intercontinental ballistic missile, Jericho 3, which foreign sources report is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead 7,000 kilometers.
After that, the IDF released photographs of Israeli Air Force squadron leaders reporting from Italian air base runways to the media on joint exercises they had conducted in long-range maneuvers with the Italian air force "and other NATO nations," to familiarize the IAF with NATO military tactics.
Next, the IDF's Home Command announced a large-scale anti-missile exercise in central Israel starting Thursday morning, Nov. 3.
A potential US-British strike to pre-empt this move would also be timed for the run-up to America's next presidential election in November 2012.Could it be that this attack would be used for political manipulation? By a Nobel Peace Prize recipient? Let's hope that if war happens the timing was established by the military and not by Mr. Obama's campaign managers.
Debkafile's military sources report that if the US, Britain and other NATO nations, such as France, Italy and Germany, participate in the attack, Israel will not. Its army, air force and navy will defend the home front, be available to engage Iran's allies to prevent them from striking the assault forces from the rear, and act as a strategic reserve. The danger would come from Syria, the Lebanese Hizballah, and the Palestinian Hamas and Jihad Islami in the Gaza Strip.If, however, NATO decides not to go through with the assault Israel will have to decide whether to try to slow down Iran's nuclear weapons program on its own.
There is not much time for contemplation. Syria and Hizballah are reported by debkafile's military sources to be in the throes of separate preparations for attacking Israel if their respective grips on power are shaken. For now, those sources rate the chances of Israel facing a military clash with Syria and/or Hizballah much higher than a NATO-Israeli showdown being mounted against Iran.I'll repeat what I've said on numerous previous occasions: War with Iran would be cataclysmic for the Middle East, probably Europe, and maybe the U.S. Violence will not be confined to the theater of combat. Terror attacks and assassinations will occur worldwide. Attacks on oil supplies and shipping will doubtless also be attempted. The only thing worse than attacking Iran would be to let Iran get a nuclear weapon. If that were allowed to transpire the world would truly be facing Armageddon.
Friday, November 4, 2011
Silenced
"Must-read" is an over-used adjective when talking about books, but sometimes I think it captures my feelings about a book perfectly. Such is the case with an enormously important work written by Paul Marshall and Nina Shea, titled Silenced: How Apostasy and Blasphemy Codes Are Choking Freedom Worldwide. In 331 pages of text and another 100+ pages of documentation the authors compile a powerful warning to the West and a chillingly informative narrative of exactly what's going on in the Islamic world today.
Marshall and Shea take the reader on a sight-seeing tour of a dozen or so countries in the Islamic world, describing in calm, dispassionate reportage the brutal stifling of thought and the horrific consequences of even the most innocent criticism of Islam. It's not only non-Muslims who are the victims of this oppression. Any member of a minority group, even of another Muslim sect, is subject to fall afoul of Islamic blasphemy codes. The dominant religious group seeks to impose strict uniformity of belief wherever they can, and any criticism, no matter how trivial, is seen as blasphemy against Allah or his Prophet or as "insulting Islam," either of which will get the person jailed, tortured, or murdered.
Moreover, anyone who converts from Islam to another religion or no religion is considered an apostate and is subject to death, not just by courts of law, but by anyone who happens to have the opportunity to take the apostate's life.
Even criticizing such draconian laws can get one killed. In Pakistan in January of this year, Salman Taseer, a Muslim and governor of Pakistan's wealthiest province was murdered by his own bodyguard because he had repeatedly called for the repeal of blasphemy laws and also for the pardon of Asia Bibi, a woman who was sentenced to die because she had been accused (not convicted) of insulting the Prophet.
On March 2nd of this year Shahbaz Bhatti, the highest ranking Christian in the Pakistani government was murdered while visiting his mother because he "was an infidel Christian" and had devoted his life to the causes of religious freedom and human rights.
Lest one think that these crimes are perpetrated by a small number of extremists, Pew Foundation research shows that 78% of Pakistanis approve of killing apostates and "blasphemers".
The murders of Taseer and Bhatti were two prominent cases, but there have been thousands of lesser known victims of religious violence throughout the Islamic world over the last twenty years.
A nun was murdered in Somalia and dozens of churches set afire after Pope Benedict gave a speech in Germany in which he made a statement that Muslims considered insulting.
Several hundred people were killed in riots in the Middle East, Africa, and elsewhere, after a Danish cartoonist drew a picture of Mohammed with a bomb in his turban.
In an example of almost incredible irony several Muslim reformers have written that Islam, as it is widely practiced, is too violent. They were subsequently subject to death threats from other Muslims who thought the reformers claims were insulting.
One of the most bizarre cases of such violence occurred in September or 2007 in the Sudan. A fifty four year-old school teacher from England named Gillian Gibbons used a teddy bear as a teaching tool in her classroom and asked her students to give the bear a name. Twenty of the twenty three students suggested naming the stuffed animal Mohammed, not after the Prophet, but after the most popular boy in the class. When somehow word of this sacrilege got out Gibbons was arrested and eventually convicted of insulting religion.
The day following her conviction tens of thousands of people armed with machetes and swords filled the streets of Khartoum demanding that she be put to death for blasphemy. Fortunately, the British government was able to extricate her from Khartoum and get her safely back to England, but many others have not been as lucky.
The terror is widespread throughout the Middle East, northern Africa, and Indonesia, but it's also spreading to Europe where politicians and jurists are putting themselves through intellectual contortions in order to appease Muslims who demand that no criticism or satire of Islam be permitted in European society, while at the same time trying to hold on to a residuum of free speech.
Dutch Filmmaker Theo van Gogh was murdered, Dutch parliamentarian Ayaan Hirsi Ali was essentially booted out of the country and is living in the U.S. under protective guard, Dutch politician Pim Fortuyn was assassinated for his criticism of Muslim immigration, Novelist Salman Rushdie has been living in hiding since 1989 when a fatwa of death was put on him by the Ayatollah Khomeini for Rushdie's novel the Satanic Verses. Much of the rest of Europe has been cowed into submission.
Christian pastors can be brought to trial in Europe for "hate speech" if they criticize Islam in a sermon, an astonishing fact given that madrassas around the globe inculcate hate for Christians and Jews into their students on a daily basis.
The situation in the U.S. is not yet quite so grim because of our First Amendment protections, but the chilling effect of the threat of Muslim violence extends even to our shores. Yale Publishing Co. published a book on the Danish cartoon controversy in which a series of cartoons depicting Mohammed set off the deadly riots mentioned above. But while Yale published the book they refused to show the cartoons which the book was about.
Our own State Department and Department of Homeland Security have censored the language that government employees can use to refer to terrorists. They are proscribed from using words like "salafi", "wahhabist," "caliphate," and "jihadist" because these are said to be offensive to Muslims when used by non-Muslims. They also banned the use of the term "Islamic terrorism," replacing it with the rather inartful but more politically correct term, "man-caused disasters."
In Canada, journalist Mark Steyn and the news magazine for which he wrote were hauled before three separate Canadian human rights commissions because he wrote an essay critical of Islamic fundamentalism and Canadian political correctness. The column offended Muslims, mainly because Steyn maintained that Islam was making inroads into European society and was profoundly changing the culture. Steyn was eventually absolved, but under Canadian law he had to pay all of his legal fees, a fact guaranteed to discourage others from putting themselves through a similar ordeal.
It's hard to avoid the conclusion that emerges from Marshall and Shea's extensive research that a dark age is descending upon the globe, an age in which violence is used to inhibit and suppress any criticism and scrutiny of a particular religious belief, to extinguish the great Western legacy of free speech, and to gradually compel its acceptance throughout Western society.
The authors have done us a valuable service by documenting what life is like for those who already live under such conditions and what it will be like for those in the West if they continue to allow the freedom to speak critically about a belief system and its practitioners to be eroded away by fear of violence.
Marshall and Shea take the reader on a sight-seeing tour of a dozen or so countries in the Islamic world, describing in calm, dispassionate reportage the brutal stifling of thought and the horrific consequences of even the most innocent criticism of Islam. It's not only non-Muslims who are the victims of this oppression. Any member of a minority group, even of another Muslim sect, is subject to fall afoul of Islamic blasphemy codes. The dominant religious group seeks to impose strict uniformity of belief wherever they can, and any criticism, no matter how trivial, is seen as blasphemy against Allah or his Prophet or as "insulting Islam," either of which will get the person jailed, tortured, or murdered.
Moreover, anyone who converts from Islam to another religion or no religion is considered an apostate and is subject to death, not just by courts of law, but by anyone who happens to have the opportunity to take the apostate's life.
Even criticizing such draconian laws can get one killed. In Pakistan in January of this year, Salman Taseer, a Muslim and governor of Pakistan's wealthiest province was murdered by his own bodyguard because he had repeatedly called for the repeal of blasphemy laws and also for the pardon of Asia Bibi, a woman who was sentenced to die because she had been accused (not convicted) of insulting the Prophet.
On March 2nd of this year Shahbaz Bhatti, the highest ranking Christian in the Pakistani government was murdered while visiting his mother because he "was an infidel Christian" and had devoted his life to the causes of religious freedom and human rights.
Lest one think that these crimes are perpetrated by a small number of extremists, Pew Foundation research shows that 78% of Pakistanis approve of killing apostates and "blasphemers".
The murders of Taseer and Bhatti were two prominent cases, but there have been thousands of lesser known victims of religious violence throughout the Islamic world over the last twenty years.
A nun was murdered in Somalia and dozens of churches set afire after Pope Benedict gave a speech in Germany in which he made a statement that Muslims considered insulting.
Several hundred people were killed in riots in the Middle East, Africa, and elsewhere, after a Danish cartoonist drew a picture of Mohammed with a bomb in his turban.
In an example of almost incredible irony several Muslim reformers have written that Islam, as it is widely practiced, is too violent. They were subsequently subject to death threats from other Muslims who thought the reformers claims were insulting.
One of the most bizarre cases of such violence occurred in September or 2007 in the Sudan. A fifty four year-old school teacher from England named Gillian Gibbons used a teddy bear as a teaching tool in her classroom and asked her students to give the bear a name. Twenty of the twenty three students suggested naming the stuffed animal Mohammed, not after the Prophet, but after the most popular boy in the class. When somehow word of this sacrilege got out Gibbons was arrested and eventually convicted of insulting religion.
The day following her conviction tens of thousands of people armed with machetes and swords filled the streets of Khartoum demanding that she be put to death for blasphemy. Fortunately, the British government was able to extricate her from Khartoum and get her safely back to England, but many others have not been as lucky.
The terror is widespread throughout the Middle East, northern Africa, and Indonesia, but it's also spreading to Europe where politicians and jurists are putting themselves through intellectual contortions in order to appease Muslims who demand that no criticism or satire of Islam be permitted in European society, while at the same time trying to hold on to a residuum of free speech.
Dutch Filmmaker Theo van Gogh was murdered, Dutch parliamentarian Ayaan Hirsi Ali was essentially booted out of the country and is living in the U.S. under protective guard, Dutch politician Pim Fortuyn was assassinated for his criticism of Muslim immigration, Novelist Salman Rushdie has been living in hiding since 1989 when a fatwa of death was put on him by the Ayatollah Khomeini for Rushdie's novel the Satanic Verses. Much of the rest of Europe has been cowed into submission.
Christian pastors can be brought to trial in Europe for "hate speech" if they criticize Islam in a sermon, an astonishing fact given that madrassas around the globe inculcate hate for Christians and Jews into their students on a daily basis.
The situation in the U.S. is not yet quite so grim because of our First Amendment protections, but the chilling effect of the threat of Muslim violence extends even to our shores. Yale Publishing Co. published a book on the Danish cartoon controversy in which a series of cartoons depicting Mohammed set off the deadly riots mentioned above. But while Yale published the book they refused to show the cartoons which the book was about.
Our own State Department and Department of Homeland Security have censored the language that government employees can use to refer to terrorists. They are proscribed from using words like "salafi", "wahhabist," "caliphate," and "jihadist" because these are said to be offensive to Muslims when used by non-Muslims. They also banned the use of the term "Islamic terrorism," replacing it with the rather inartful but more politically correct term, "man-caused disasters."
In Canada, journalist Mark Steyn and the news magazine for which he wrote were hauled before three separate Canadian human rights commissions because he wrote an essay critical of Islamic fundamentalism and Canadian political correctness. The column offended Muslims, mainly because Steyn maintained that Islam was making inroads into European society and was profoundly changing the culture. Steyn was eventually absolved, but under Canadian law he had to pay all of his legal fees, a fact guaranteed to discourage others from putting themselves through a similar ordeal.
It's hard to avoid the conclusion that emerges from Marshall and Shea's extensive research that a dark age is descending upon the globe, an age in which violence is used to inhibit and suppress any criticism and scrutiny of a particular religious belief, to extinguish the great Western legacy of free speech, and to gradually compel its acceptance throughout Western society.
The authors have done us a valuable service by documenting what life is like for those who already live under such conditions and what it will be like for those in the West if they continue to allow the freedom to speak critically about a belief system and its practitioners to be eroded away by fear of violence.
Ayn Rand and the Tea Party
Walter Hudson at Pajamas Media has some good thoughts on the role of religion in politics. His post was triggered by the wish of a group of Ayn Rand's followers to join forces with the Tea Party:
But read Hudson's post and see what you think, whether you're sympathetic to the Tea Party or not.
It began without controversy. At a routine board meeting of the North Star Tea Party Patriots (NSTPP), a coalition of activist groups in Minnesota which this author chairs, a vote was taken to admit a new member organization. The new group was the Minnesota Objectivist Association (MOA) which advocates the philosophy of Ayn Rand as expressed in her novel Atlas Shrugged.Hudson goes on to ask whether the Tea Party is just about smaller, fiscally responsible government, lower taxes, and less government regulation or is there some larger unarticulated religious vision also lying at the core of the movement. There might be, but I don't think the Tea Party should exclude those of like mind who don't share their theistic assumptions and commmitments. It should, in my opinion, keep its focus on the above fiscal matters and welcome as allies anyone who agrees with them on those issues.
Though not a Tea Party organization in name, MOA was nonetheless supportive of the movement’s mission and principles. Signs reading “Who is John Galt?” in reference to Rand’s novel had been a staple at Tea Party rallies since the movement began.
Within days, word got around to the broader NSTPP membership that MOA had been admitted. Pushback began. Some complained that MOA did not have “Tea Party” in their name. Others noted that MOA was not listed on Tea Party Patriots’ national directory.
The concern over these relatively minor points seemed disproportionate. Provision had been made in the NSTPP constitution to include organizations which predated the Tea Party movement yet sought the same ends. A group without “Tea Party” in its name had been admitted before.
After some beating around the bush, the crux of the matter emerged. Ayn Rand was an atheist, and her philosophy of Objectivism did not acknowledge the existence of God. Thus was alleged an irreconcilable difference between the Tea Party and Ayn Rand.
As the controversy progressed, MOA ultimately withdrew from the coalition, citing the episode as a needless distraction to all parties concerned. Precluding debate left some important questions unresolved. What role does religion play within the Tea Party? Must one be a theist in order to be philosophically aligned with the movement?
But read Hudson's post and see what you think, whether you're sympathetic to the Tea Party or not.
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Politics of Personal Destruction
As predicted, Herman Cain is being drawn and quartered by the media for alleged inappropriate behavior over a decade ago. If he's guilty it's certainly something the voters should know, but the way this sordid episode has been handled and the media feeding frenzy that has resulted, raise several questions.
Given that most successful people in business and politics have something in their past they wouldn't want made the topic of world-wide interest, why would anyone want to put themselves through the incredibly absurd and brutal process we call a political campaign? Our contemporary political process is designed to all but insure that the winner will be either the most ruthless, the most dishonest, or the most bland and enigmatic candidate in the race. It's no wonder that people like Mitch Daniels and Chris Christie don't want to run. Why put your family through this?
I also wonder how many of the people who are seeking to destroy Cain by publicizing these allegations and pillorying him in the media stood by President Clinton when he was accused of doing far worse than merely making a woman feel uncomfortable. Clinton was accused by Juanita Broaddrick of rape, by Kathleen Willey of sexual assault (while consoling her over the death of her husband), and by Paula Jones of indecent exposure. Moreover, he had extramarital affairs with at least five women while governor of Arkansas and was convicted of perjury while serving as president, but none of that seemed to matter to his supporters, many of whom would gladly vote for him again and many of whom are among those condemning Herman Cain for unspecified acts which made several women "feel uncomfortable".
Finally, why are reporters tripping all over each other to rush unsubstantiated allegations of sexual misconduct against Cain into print when they sat on substantiated allegations of John Edwards philandering and his "love child" until Edwards was no longer a presidential candidate and there was no doubt about the nature of his pathetic behavior?
I don't know what Cain did. If it was sexually inappropriate that certainly reflects poorly on his suitability for high office, but whatever he did it wasn't as bad as what either Clinton or Edwards did, both of whom were given a pass by the people who are today delightedly destroying Cain. Nor was Cain's behavior as sleazy as that of a hypocritical media which staunchly defended President Clinton and slandered his accusers, but is determined to ruin a man whose offenses were far milder but who poses a serious threat to the reelection of the incumbent president.
Given that most successful people in business and politics have something in their past they wouldn't want made the topic of world-wide interest, why would anyone want to put themselves through the incredibly absurd and brutal process we call a political campaign? Our contemporary political process is designed to all but insure that the winner will be either the most ruthless, the most dishonest, or the most bland and enigmatic candidate in the race. It's no wonder that people like Mitch Daniels and Chris Christie don't want to run. Why put your family through this?
I also wonder how many of the people who are seeking to destroy Cain by publicizing these allegations and pillorying him in the media stood by President Clinton when he was accused of doing far worse than merely making a woman feel uncomfortable. Clinton was accused by Juanita Broaddrick of rape, by Kathleen Willey of sexual assault (while consoling her over the death of her husband), and by Paula Jones of indecent exposure. Moreover, he had extramarital affairs with at least five women while governor of Arkansas and was convicted of perjury while serving as president, but none of that seemed to matter to his supporters, many of whom would gladly vote for him again and many of whom are among those condemning Herman Cain for unspecified acts which made several women "feel uncomfortable".
Finally, why are reporters tripping all over each other to rush unsubstantiated allegations of sexual misconduct against Cain into print when they sat on substantiated allegations of John Edwards philandering and his "love child" until Edwards was no longer a presidential candidate and there was no doubt about the nature of his pathetic behavior?
I don't know what Cain did. If it was sexually inappropriate that certainly reflects poorly on his suitability for high office, but whatever he did it wasn't as bad as what either Clinton or Edwards did, both of whom were given a pass by the people who are today delightedly destroying Cain. Nor was Cain's behavior as sleazy as that of a hypocritical media which staunchly defended President Clinton and slandered his accusers, but is determined to ruin a man whose offenses were far milder but who poses a serious threat to the reelection of the incumbent president.
The Ongoing Controversy
The global warming debate continues and is starting to look a bit like a soap opera.
Last week Richard Muller of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures (BEST) project team - a scientist who had formerly been skeptical of the claims that the earth was inexorably warming - rocked the climate science world by releasing a paper in which he reversed his former skepticism and acknowledged that he now believed that man-caused, or anthropogenic, global warming (APG) was an indisputable fact. His new position was quickly repudiated, however, by a prominent colleague at BEST who argued that Prof. Muller was hiding data that completely negated his argument that the earth's temperature is rising.
Here's part of the story:
At any rate, it certainly seems that since 1998 global temperatures have not risen even though we have continued to pump CO2 into the atmosphere. This is inexplicable given the predictions of global warming alarmists and suggests that climate change/stability is a much more complicated affair than a simple correlation between greenhouse gas emissions and temperature.
What the truth of the matter is I certainly don't know, but I do think it's safe to say that when people like Al Gore insist that the science is settled on APG they don't know what they're talking about.
Last week Richard Muller of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures (BEST) project team - a scientist who had formerly been skeptical of the claims that the earth was inexorably warming - rocked the climate science world by releasing a paper in which he reversed his former skepticism and acknowledged that he now believed that man-caused, or anthropogenic, global warming (APG) was an indisputable fact. His new position was quickly repudiated, however, by a prominent colleague at BEST who argued that Prof. Muller was hiding data that completely negated his argument that the earth's temperature is rising.
Here's part of the story:
Professor Richard Muller, of Berkeley University in California, and his colleagues from the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures project team (BEST), claimed to have shown that the planet has warmed by almost a degree centigrade since 1950 and is warming continually.These are the graphs which appeared in The Mail's article:
Published last week ahead of a major United Nations climate summit in Durban, South Africa, next month, their work was cited around the world as irrefutable evidence that only the most stringent measures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions can save civilization as we know it.
It was cited uncritically by, among others, reporters and commentators from the BBC, The Independent, The Guardian, The Economist and numerous media outlets in America.
The Washington Post said the BEST study had ‘settled the climate change debate’ and showed that anyone who remained a skeptic was committing a ‘cynical fraud’. But today The Mail on Sunday can reveal that a leading member of Prof Muller’s team has accused him of trying to mislead the public by hiding the fact that BEST’s research shows global warming has stopped.
Prof Judith Curry, who chairs the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at America’s prestigious Georgia Institute of Technology, said that Prof Muller’s claim that he has proven global warming skeptics wrong was also a ‘huge mistake’, with no scientific basis. Prof Curry is a distinguished climate researcher with more than 30 years experience and the second named co-author of the BEST project’s four research papers.
Her comments, in an exclusive interview with The Mail on Sunday, seem certain to ignite a furious academic row. She said this affair had to be compared to the notorious ‘Climategate’ scandal two years ago. Like the scientists exposed then by leaked emails from East Anglia University’s Climatic Research Unit, her colleagues from the BEST project seem to be trying to ‘hide the decline’ in rates of global warming.
In fact, Prof Curry said, the project’s research data show there has been no increase in world temperatures since the end of the Nineties – a fact confirmed by a new analysis that The Mail on Sunday has obtained.
‘There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,’ she said. ‘To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.’
However, Prof Muller denied warming was at a standstill. ‘We see no evidence of it [global warming] having slowed down,’ he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. There was, he added, ‘no leveling off’. But a report to be published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation includes a graph of world average temperatures over the past ten years, drawn from the BEST project’s data and revealed on its website.
This graph shows that the trend of the last decade is absolutely flat, with no increase at all – though the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have carried on rising relentlessly.
‘This is nowhere near what the climate models were predicting,’ Prof Curry said. ‘Whatever it is that’s going on here, it doesn’t look like it’s being dominated by CO2.’ In fact, she added, in the wake of the unexpected global warming standstill, many climate scientists who had previously rejected skeptics’ arguments were now taking them much more seriously.Well, the mystification is understandable if, as the article tells us, Prof. Muller had previously insisted that there's no evidence that global warming was at a standstill.
They were finally addressing questions such as the influence of clouds, natural temperature cycles and solar radiation – as they should have done, she said, a long time ago.
Yesterday Prof Muller insisted that neither his claims that there has not been a standstill, nor the graph, were misleading .... However, he admitted it was true that the BEST data suggested that world temperatures have not risen for about 13 years. But in his view, this might not be ‘statistically significant’, although, he added, it was equally possible that it was – a statement which left other scientists mystified.
‘I am baffled as to what he’s trying to do,’ Prof Curry said.
At any rate, it certainly seems that since 1998 global temperatures have not risen even though we have continued to pump CO2 into the atmosphere. This is inexplicable given the predictions of global warming alarmists and suggests that climate change/stability is a much more complicated affair than a simple correlation between greenhouse gas emissions and temperature.
What the truth of the matter is I certainly don't know, but I do think it's safe to say that when people like Al Gore insist that the science is settled on APG they don't know what they're talking about.
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
Lord of the Flies
The Occupations, or at least some of them, appear to be devolving into what you might expect - chaos, bickering, and crime. If the Democrats had hoped to exploit this unrest and dissatisfaction for political gain, they're doubtless reconsidering now.
Here's a sample of what's happening in Baltimore: Via Hot Air
Here's a sample of what's happening in Baltimore: Via Hot Air
Darwin and Hitler
A piece by Richard Weikert, author of the excellent book From Darwin to Hitler, recently caught my eye. Weikert recounts being interviewed by a writer for the Philadelphia Inquirer who challenged his claim that Darwinists have no grounds upon which to judge the morality of Adolph Hitler, or anyone else, for that matter. Here's part of his account:
There's much more of interest in Weikert's post. For example, it's clear that Flam really doesn't understand the nature of the problem for the belief that we have moral obligations that's posed by naturalism:
The droll thing about this is that, while living as if the thing they claim to be false is really true, they're happy to proclaim to one and all that Christianity is irrational.
Flam responds to Weikert, rather weakly in my view, here.
When the Philadelphia Inquirer's science writer Faye Flam interviewed me recently for her article "Severing the Link Between Darwin and Nazism," she pressed me to discuss the implications of the Darwinism-Nazism connection that my scholarship has explored (especially in my two books, From Darwin to Hitler: Evolutionary Ethics, Eugenics, and Racism in Germany and Hitler's Ethic: The Nazi Pursuit of Evolutionary Progress).Richard Dawkins himself says precisely this, as we've pointed out on previous occasions: "What's to prevent us from saying," Dawkins asks, "that Hitler was right? I mean, that is a genuinely difficult question." And Dawkins is far from being the only naturalistic scientist who has arrived at this conclusion.
I threw down the gauntlet to many of my Darwinian opponents by telling her that if Darwinism is indeed a purposeless, non-teleological process, as many evolutionists and biology textbooks proclaim, and if morality is the product of these mindless evolutionary processes, as Darwin and many other prominent Darwinists maintain, then "I don't think [they] have any grounds to criticize Hitler."
According to Flam, these are "fighting words." However, I have spoken with intelligent Darwinists who admit point-blank that they do not have any grounds to condemn Hitler, so I am not just making this up. Many evolutionists believe that since evolution explains the origin of morality -- as Darwin himself argued -- then there is no objective morality. The famous evolutionary biologist and founder of sociobiology, E. O. Wilson, and the prominent philosopher of science Michael Ruse co-authored an article on evolutionary ethics in which they asserted, "Ethics as we understand it is an illusion fobbed off on us by our genes to get us to co-operate."
This is obviously not an undisputed point among Darwinists, but it is a position embraced by many leading Darwinists, and it does seem to reflect Darwin's own position. If indeed ethics is an illusion, merely the product of mindless, purposeless processes, it is hard to see what basis Darwinists could have to condemn Hitler morally.
Indeed, on several occasions I have asked those committed to the evolutionary origins of morality about the implications of their views: "Can you say then that Hitler is objectively evil or not?" Usually, they reluctantly admit to me that they have no objective basis to condemn Hitler or any other purveyors of atrocities.
There's much more of interest in Weikert's post. For example, it's clear that Flam really doesn't understand the nature of the problem for the belief that we have moral obligations that's posed by naturalism:
[Flam] argues that "Darwin himself wrote that violence, selfishness, charity, and goodwill are all part of human nature. He hoped that we would choose to act on the better parts." Wait a minute. Where did this notion of "better" come from? If Flam is taking a fully naturalistic Darwinian perspective, as she seems to be, with evolution being a purposeless, non-teleological process, why does she think that charity and goodwill are any "better" than violence and selfishness.Flam's problem is that, like so many other naturalistic materialists, she's piggy-backing on Christian theism without realizing it. She's assuming that naturalism need not diminish our view that life is full of meaning and that human beings have objective moral duties, when in fact naturalism erases both of these. Naturalists like Flam insist that theism is false but live as if it were true, and the contradiction doesn't trouble them because they're blithely unaware of it.
According to the Darwinian account of the origin of morality, all these character traits allegedly helped humans adapt to their present environment in the struggle for existence. All of these are "natural" behaviors, as are genocide, rape, murder, and theft, or honesty, self-sacrifice, and altruism. What arbitrates between these behaviors? Who can say that any of these behaviors are "better" than any others?
She concludes her article by asking, "If our lives really did hinge on countless accidents, couldn't that notion make life ever more precious?" Again, she is smuggling ideas into her argument that are fundamentally incompatible with her worldview. "Precious" implies that something has value, meaning, and significance; indeed it means that something has more value than other things.
However, a naturalistic understanding of Darwinism cannot sustain the notion that life is precious, because everything, not just life, is the product of chance and would be equally valuable, making life no more precious than anything else in the cosmos. A lump of coal or a dung heap is every bit as much the product of countless accidents as you are. Does that make them precious? Many Darwinists today, such as Richard Dawkins and Jerry Coyne, reject the idea that human life is special and has any meaning or purpose.
The droll thing about this is that, while living as if the thing they claim to be false is really true, they're happy to proclaim to one and all that Christianity is irrational.
Flam responds to Weikert, rather weakly in my view, here.
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Taking Down the Sign
It turns out that the atheist group which paid several thousand dollars to put up this billboard is ignominiously taking it down. A thorough search was unable to corroborate that Thomas Jefferson said anything close to what the billboard claims he said:
So, not only is there no evidence Jefferson ever said such a thing, but Mr.Gleason is incorrect in asserting that it nevertheless expresses his true feelings. Not only is there much evidence to the contrary, but only a complete historical illiterate could say that there's not one redeeming feature of Christianity. I think it safe to say that Jefferson would have been offended that such ignorance was imputed to him.
The atheist group that sponsored the sign is not only historically benighted they're also pusillanimous. Here's a test: Unless one is willing to put up a similar billboard saying the same about Islam they really shouldn't put up a sign derogating Christianity. It takes no courage to criticize people you know will do nothing more serious to you than pray for you. It does take courage, however, to broadcast the same message about a religion whose devotees will do all they can to cut off your head for saying it.
Moreover, is this the best that the Cosa Mesa atheists can do with $4000? How many meals would that money have provided in a soup kitchen? How many elderly could have their utility bills paid with that amount? How many vaccines could be purchased for destitute Africans? What good comes from spending the money on an effort to dispirit and discredit the very people who are actually doing these things?
HT: The Blaze
The atheist group that sponsored the sign is not only historically benighted they're also pusillanimous. Here's a test: Unless one is willing to put up a similar billboard saying the same about Islam they really shouldn't put up a sign derogating Christianity. It takes no courage to criticize people you know will do nothing more serious to you than pray for you. It does take courage, however, to broadcast the same message about a religion whose devotees will do all they can to cut off your head for saying it.
Moreover, is this the best that the Cosa Mesa atheists can do with $4000? How many meals would that money have provided in a soup kitchen? How many elderly could have their utility bills paid with that amount? How many vaccines could be purchased for destitute Africans? What good comes from spending the money on an effort to dispirit and discredit the very people who are actually doing these things?
HT: The Blaze
The Handy Hammer of Hate
The Washington Post takes note of how hate is being used by the left as a tool to censor legitimate debate in our public square. It's significant, I think, that this article, which is critical of the left, appeared in the Post which is one of the more liberal newspapers in the land. Here's the gist of it:
Having proven itself in the past to be an effective expedient for winning debates and getting one's way, it receives frequent employment by commentators on the left. Simply accuse one's opponents of some form of bigotry, whether racial or sexual, and you effectively discredit and thus silence them without having to actually construct an intelligent argument. This is insidious because it stifles and derails the kind of open and honest discourse upon which a democratic society is nourished. But then, a lot of these folks aren't really interested in open and honest discourse, nor are they interested in a free and democratic society.
In the debates over gay marriage, "hate" is the ultimate conversation-stopper.It is indeed one of the more charming habits of some liberals to label arguments or opinions they don't like a form of hatred. It would be a derisory tactic were it not for the fact that it so often works, at least with those who can't be bothered to examine such claims carefully.
Some stories from recent months: A religion instructor at a midwestern state university explains in an e-mail to students the rational basis for Catholic teaching on homosexuality. He is denounced by a student for "hate speech" and is dismissed from his position. (He is later reinstated - for now.)
At another midwestern state university, a department chairman demurs from a student organizer's request that his department promote an upcoming "LGBTQ" film festival on campus; he is denounced to his university's chancellor, who indicates that his e-mail to the student warrants inquiry by a "Hate and Bias Incident Response Team."
On the west coast, a state law school moves to marginalize a Christian student group that requires its members to pledge they will conform to orthodox Christian doctrines on sexual morality. In the history of the school, no student group has ever been denied campus recognition. But this one is, and the U.S. Supreme Court lets the school get away with it.
The Southern Poverty Law Center, a once-respected civil rights organization, publishes a "report" identifying a dozen or so "anti-gay hate groups," some for no apparent reason other than their vocal opposition to same-sex marriage. Other marriage advocacy groups are put on a watch list.
On a left-wing Web site, a petition drive succeeds in pressuring Apple to drop an "app" from its iTunes store for the Manhattan Declaration, an ecumenical Christian statement whose nearly half-million signers are united in defense of the right to life, the tradition of conjugal marriage between man and woman, and the principles of religious liberty. The offense? The app is a "hate fest." Fewer than 8,000 people petition for the app to go; more than five times as many petition Apple for its reinstatement, so far to no avail.
Finally, on "$#*! My Dad Says," a CBS sitcom watched by more than 10 million weekly viewers, an entire half-hour episode is devoted to a depiction of the disapproval of homosexuality as bigotry, a form of unreasoning intolerance that clings to the past with a coarse and mean-spirited judgmentalism. And this on a show whose title character is famously irascible and politically incorrect, but who in this instance turns out to be fashionably cuddly and up-to-date.
What's going on here? Clearly a determined effort is afoot, in cultural bastions controlled by the left, to anathematize traditional views of sexual morality, particularly opposition to same-sex marriage, as the expression of "hate" that cannot be tolerated in a decent civil society.
The argument over same-sex marriage must be brought to an end, and the debate considered settled. Defenders of traditional marriage must be likened to racists, as purveyors of irrational fear and loathing. Opposition to same-sex marriage must be treated just like support for now long-gone anti-miscegenation laws.
Having proven itself in the past to be an effective expedient for winning debates and getting one's way, it receives frequent employment by commentators on the left. Simply accuse one's opponents of some form of bigotry, whether racial or sexual, and you effectively discredit and thus silence them without having to actually construct an intelligent argument. This is insidious because it stifles and derails the kind of open and honest discourse upon which a democratic society is nourished. But then, a lot of these folks aren't really interested in open and honest discourse, nor are they interested in a free and democratic society.
Monday, October 31, 2011
The Streetlight Effect
We've all heard the story: A policeman sees a drunk man searching for something under a street light and asks what the drunk has lost. He says he lost his keys, and so they both look under the street light together. After a few minutes the policeman asks if he's sure he lost them here, and the drunk replies, no, that he lost them in the park. The policeman asks why he's searching here if the keys are in the park, and the drunk replies, "this is where the light is."
I was reminded of that story reading a brief piece by the atheistic materialist David Barash. He recounts an incident after a lecture when he was asked what he thought the hardest problem in science is:
Another aspect of this problem is explaining how electrons flowing along neurons can generate meaning when we see a paragraph of text. How do the patterns of ink on paper create an understanding in the brain? No one knows, and no one can even suggest a way to find out. This is why this is called the "hard" problem of consciousness (as opposed to the easier problem of mapping the parts of the brain that "light up" when subjected to different types of physical stimuli).
It's intriguing that even scientists, who are supposed to be the most open-minded and most liberated of thinkers, are really imprisoned in their worldview and unable to imagine that the answers they seek are actually not to be found under that particular streetlight.
I was reminded of that story reading a brief piece by the atheistic materialist David Barash. He recounts an incident after a lecture when he was asked what he thought the hardest problem in science is:
I answered without hesitation: How the brain generates awareness, thought, perceptions, emotions, and so forth, what philosophers call “the hard problem of consciousness.”What Barash is putting his finger on is the problem of understanding how chemical reactions in the brain could produce sensations like color, sound, fragrance, or taste. How does a mix of neurochemicals cause us to have the experience of red or sweet?
It’s a hard one indeed, so hard that despite an immense amount of research attention devoted to neurobiology, and despite great advances in our knowledge, I don’t believe we are significantly closer to bridging the gap between that which is physical, anatomical and electro-neurochemical, and what is subjectively experienced by all of us.
Another aspect of this problem is explaining how electrons flowing along neurons can generate meaning when we see a paragraph of text. How do the patterns of ink on paper create an understanding in the brain? No one knows, and no one can even suggest a way to find out. This is why this is called the "hard" problem of consciousness (as opposed to the easier problem of mapping the parts of the brain that "light up" when subjected to different types of physical stimuli).
To be sure, there are lots of other hard problems, such as the perennial one of reconciling quantum theory with relativity, whether life exists on other planets, how action can occur at a distance (gravity, the attraction of opposite charges), how cells differentiate, and so forth. But in these and other cases, I can at least envisage possible solutions, even though none of mine actually work.So what does this have to do with what's called the streetlight effect - i.e. continuing to look for an answer where it's easiest to look even though it seems pretty clear that the answer won't be found there? Well, in his next paragraph Barash describes his own "street light":
But the hard problem of consciousness is so hard that I can’t even imagine what kind of empirical findings would satisfactorily solve it. In fact, I don’t even know what kind of discovery would get us to first base, not to mention a home run.
I write this as an utter and absolute, dyed-in-the-wool, scientifically oriented, hard-headed, empirically insistent, atheistically committed materialist, altogether certain that matter and energy rule the world, not mystical abracadabra. But I still can’t get any purchase on this “hard problem,” the very label being a notable understatement. Cogito ergo sum may well be the most famous phrase in Western thought, yet I am convinced that Descartes’ renowned dualism is nonsense, that mind arises from nothing more nor less than the actions of the brain. I am also nearly as confident that some day, we’ll understand how.Rather than entertain the possibility that his worldview is inadequate to give a satisfying description of the world Barash insists on looking under the streetlight of atheistic materialism for an explanation of consciousness. Maybe the answer doesn't lie elsewhere, but wouldn't it be wise to at least admit that it might? Wouldn't it be a step in the right direction to admit that his faith commitment to materialism is just that, an act of faith that all explanations are ultimately material explanations. It's not that materialism is an ersatz religion, it's that, for people like Barash, it is a religion.
It's intriguing that even scientists, who are supposed to be the most open-minded and most liberated of thinkers, are really imprisoned in their worldview and unable to imagine that the answers they seek are actually not to be found under that particular streetlight.
Racial Catalyst
Why is it that if conservatives oppose President Obama's policies they're automatically saddled by the left with the presumption of racism, but the left can say all sorts of insulting things about Herman Cain, as a black man, and it's simply considered cogent political analysis? For many liberals, opposition to Obama is prima facie evidence of racism, but opposition to Cain is a civic duty.
Imagine what the reaction would be if someone were to insult a black Democrat the way this woman insults Cain: There are more examples of this sort of rhetoric here. It often seems that truth, evidence and logical consistency are irrelevant to some on the left. Such bourgeois values are dismissed as encumbrances, impediments which get in the way of the effort to maintain political power. What matters is winning and whatever accomplishes that goal is justified even if it means falsely accusing others of being guilty of doing the very things one does oneself.
When people on the left accuse Cain's admirers of supporting him just so they can mask or expiate their own racism, not only do they make themselves look foolish for advancing such a ludicrous explanation of Cain's popularity, but they project, I suspect, their own deepest sentiments onto their political opponents. They themselves think this way, even if they're unaware of it, and they can't imagine how anyone else could think otherwise. That's why they never offer evidence to support their claims of racism among conservatives. It must be there, they're convinced, because they know it's common among people on their own side and in themselves.
If Cain continues to do well in the polls I fear the attacks against him and his supporters will get increasingly ugly and more explicitly personal and racial even as any legitimate criticism of the president's policies and political tactics will be portrayed as racially motivated hatred.
Most of the manifestations of racial and religious bigotry in the early years of the 21st century have been found primarily on the progressive left, and Herman Cain could well be the catalyst that, like Homer's sirens, entices it all the way out into the light of day for all to see.
Imagine what the reaction would be if someone were to insult a black Democrat the way this woman insults Cain: There are more examples of this sort of rhetoric here. It often seems that truth, evidence and logical consistency are irrelevant to some on the left. Such bourgeois values are dismissed as encumbrances, impediments which get in the way of the effort to maintain political power. What matters is winning and whatever accomplishes that goal is justified even if it means falsely accusing others of being guilty of doing the very things one does oneself.
When people on the left accuse Cain's admirers of supporting him just so they can mask or expiate their own racism, not only do they make themselves look foolish for advancing such a ludicrous explanation of Cain's popularity, but they project, I suspect, their own deepest sentiments onto their political opponents. They themselves think this way, even if they're unaware of it, and they can't imagine how anyone else could think otherwise. That's why they never offer evidence to support their claims of racism among conservatives. It must be there, they're convinced, because they know it's common among people on their own side and in themselves.
If Cain continues to do well in the polls I fear the attacks against him and his supporters will get increasingly ugly and more explicitly personal and racial even as any legitimate criticism of the president's policies and political tactics will be portrayed as racially motivated hatred.
Most of the manifestations of racial and religious bigotry in the early years of the 21st century have been found primarily on the progressive left, and Herman Cain could well be the catalyst that, like Homer's sirens, entices it all the way out into the light of day for all to see.
Slouching Toward Violence
Some of the protestors at Occupy Phoenix have apparently had second thoughts about the effectiveness of peaceful demonstrations and are now ruminating on the ethics of shooting police officers. This was excerpted from a flyer circulated at OP:
This sort of thing was predictable, though. People with legitimate grievances demonstrate for redress, but their protest, if it's dominated by liberals, inevitably gets hijacked by the far left and others who seek to exploit it to inflict chaos and anarchy.
We might anticipate that the extremists at the occupations will try to instigate more ugly confrontations with police to goad them into an over-reaction. The occupations will either break up with the cold weather or they'll become increasingly violent. The status quo is never an option for the left.
Pick any example of abuse of power, whether it is the fascist “war on drugs,” the police thuggery that has become so common, the random stops and searches now routinely carried out in the name of “security” (e.g., at airports, “border checkpoints” that aren’t even at the border, “sobriety checkpoints,” and so on), or anything else. Now ask yourself the uncomfortable question: If it’s wrong for cops to do these things, doesn’t that imply that the people have a right to RESIST such actions? Of course, state mercenaries don’t take kindly to being resisted, even non-violently.Let's see, sexual assaults, thefts, riots and arrests, drug use and general squalor. Now talk of killing cops. No wonder the media has pretty much given up trying to compare the "Occupations" to Tea Party demonstrations. How many people were ever raped or arrested at a TP demonstration?
If you question their right to detain you, interrogate you, search you, invade your home, and so on, you are very likely to be tasered, physically assaulted, kidnapped, put in a cage, or shot. If a cop decides to treat you like livestock, whether he does it “legally” or not, you will usually have only two options: submit, or kill the cop. You can’t resist a cop “just a little” and get away with it. He will always call in more of his fellow gang members, until you are subdued or dead.Basic logic dictates that you either have an obligation to LET “law enforcers” have their way with you, or you have the right to STOP them from doing so, which will almost always require killing them.
This sort of thing was predictable, though. People with legitimate grievances demonstrate for redress, but their protest, if it's dominated by liberals, inevitably gets hijacked by the far left and others who seek to exploit it to inflict chaos and anarchy.
We might anticipate that the extremists at the occupations will try to instigate more ugly confrontations with police to goad them into an over-reaction. The occupations will either break up with the cold weather or they'll become increasingly violent. The status quo is never an option for the left.
Saturday, October 29, 2011
More Schiff
Last Wednesday we featured a short video of Peter Schiff engaging some of the Wall Street Protestors in dialogue. Here's the extended version of that encounter:
It's interesting to me that the protestors are camped out in New York City and other major cities around the country. Given their concerns, concerns many of us share to one degree or another, I don't know why they're not on the mall in Washington, D.C. or occupying the campuses of several major universities which have raised their costs far in excess of anything justified by inflation. In fact, to listen to some of these folks, I don't know why they're not marching with the Tea Party.
Anyway, it's too bad a fruitful, reasonable dialogue like this degenerates at one point into name-calling and insults, but that's what you get from some people, I suppose.
Anyway, it's too bad a fruitful, reasonable dialogue like this degenerates at one point into name-calling and insults, but that's what you get from some people, I suppose.
The Coming Collapse of Islam?
The other day we did a post on the anticipated global population crash which is projected to occur from about 2050 to 2200.
Now Denyse O'Leary has reviewed a book by David Goldman titled How Civilizations Die: (and why Islam is dying too) in which Goldman argues that the Islamic world is not immune from demographic collapse and that, in fact, the prospects of decline may be even more severe for Muslim populations:
Islam is dying because the Muslim birth rate - according to reliable statistics - has crashed. How badly?A cratering population has serious implications for global terrorism according to Goldman:Across the entire Muslim world, university-educated Muslim women bear children at the same rate as their infecund European counterparts.Whatever they believe about Islam, they have one or two children, but rarely three or four. Not enough to deliver their societies from demographic collapse, given the size of the families they came from. For example,The average young Tunisian woman - like her Iranian or Turkish counterpart - grew up in a family of seven children, but will bear only one or two herself.But surely some Muslims have large families? Those who do live in areas that are considered backward, and they cannot indefinitely prop up an unsustainably low urban birth rate. But because demographic decline happened so quickly in Muslim societies, the Western problem of too few young people supporting too many seniors will be much more severe, especially in countries with few natural resources, like Turkey.
Education for women doesn’t in itself cause birth dearth, but abandonment of the land does. Muslims are not immune from the urbanization that turns children who were once a source of wealth into a major cost centre. Increasing numbers of people, there as here, hope that others will undertake the trouble [of producing the next generation of children].
“If we are surprised by Muslim demographics, it is because we have not listened carefully enough to what Muslims themselves have been trying to tell us.” Islamism is more of a last stand for many than a resurgent force, hence the glamor of suicide. If all this is correct, demographic collapse will increase rather than decrease the risk of terrorism, because “there is no such thing as rational self-interest for people who believe they have nothing to lose.”Even so, Goldman observes that internal demographic collapse is a more serious threat to Muslim countries than Islamic terrorism is to the West. No civilization has ever survived a situation in which a small number of young adults must support a large number of elderly as well as raise and support their own children. This, it appears, is the condition the whole world will soon find itself in.
....a culture’s suicidal resistance often increases at precisely the point where a huge conflict is irretrievably lost. This was true of the South in the closing days of the Civil War, and of Germany and Japan in World War II, for example. Many won’t be trying to win, only to inflict damage on the victor.
Friday, October 28, 2011
Secularism and Its Discontents (Pt. II)
Yesterday we talked a little bit about portions of a New Yorker column by atheist James Woods who reviews a book of essays which strive to put a smiley face on contemporary secularism, the assumptions of which have led many moderns to a sense of quiet despair.
Today we rejoin Woods as he follows the regrettable example of so many of his fellow atheists who seek to prove that God is irrelevant to morality by reciting the inventory of allegedly bad moral behavior found in the Bible:
Woods next cites favorably a contribution to the argument by Bruce Robbins:
To press the point, if there is no God why would an Ernest Hemingway be wrong when he opines that "what's good is what you feel good after and what's bad is what you feel bad after"?
Philosopher Charles Taylor agrees with Robbins, however, and vigorously denies that our moral values are simply subjective and arbitrary preferences. He writes that:
In any event, Woods closes on a bit of a downer:
Today we rejoin Woods as he follows the regrettable example of so many of his fellow atheists who seek to prove that God is irrelevant to morality by reciting the inventory of allegedly bad moral behavior found in the Bible:
The Bible contains several examples of God and Jesus appearing to sanction what seems arbitrary or cruel conduct: the command that Abraham kill his son, the tormenting of Job (a game instigated by Satan, who seems quite chummy with the Lord), Jesus’ casual slaughter of the Gadarene pigs.He continues on in this vein for some while, seemingly oblivious to the fact that none of what he cites from the Bible is at all pertinent to the question whether God is necessary for there to be such a thing as moral obligation in the first place. God is still the only sufficient ground of moral duty even if the Bible were to completely misrepresent Him. The stories Woods recounts may bear on the reliability of Holy Writ, but that's a totally different matter than the issue of the existence of a transcendent moral authority and the necessity of such an authority for moral obligation.
Woods next cites favorably a contribution to the argument by Bruce Robbins:
An acutely intelligent piece by the literary theorist and scholar Bruce Robbins attacks, in a different way, the idea that secularism implies meaninglessness or, at best, second-rate meaning....Secularism must find and create its own values, and these might be quite varied—for instance, “helping children with their homework or cooking good meals,” or “men campaigning to protect doctors from murderous antiabortion activists or Jews campaigning against Israeli settlements on the West Bank.”This doesn't help either. What neither Robbins nor Woods seems to recognize is that these "values" are purely arbitrary. In a godless world, there is nothing to make these values right and contrary values wrong. What reason could we have, if we are just material beings - a "pack of neurons", as Francis Crick put it - with no hope of any accountability beyond the grave, what reason is there for not living solely for ourselves? What could possibly make the life of an arrant egoist morally wrong? It may differ from the life Mr. Robbins would live, but why should we esteem his life as the universal standard?
To press the point, if there is no God why would an Ernest Hemingway be wrong when he opines that "what's good is what you feel good after and what's bad is what you feel bad after"?
Philosopher Charles Taylor agrees with Robbins, however, and vigorously denies that our moral values are simply subjective and arbitrary preferences. He writes that:
It doesn’t follow ... that our attributions of value are merely arbitrary. We can argue about them rationally, and some of them can be said to be “strong evaluations” of an objective state of affairs. By a “strong evaluation,” Taylor means a judgment so powerful and wide that, when someone else is incapable of sharing it, this suggests some limitation or inadequacy on his or her part. When our neighbor doesn’t agree with us that murdering scores of people at an island camp in Norway is wrong, we do not shrug and say, “Chacun ses goûts”[ Each his own]. When Tolstoy calls Shakespeare a poor writer, it is a judgment that judges Tolstoy, and marks his eccentricity.Unfortunately for Woods' thesis, Taylor's assertions do nothing to support the claim that morality is something other than an arbitrary convention - "an illusion", as philosopher Michael Ruse asserts, "fobbed off on us by our genes to get us to cooperate." Taylor's words distill to the claim that moral right and wrong are whatever the majority feels strongly about, but that's hardly convincing support for his belief that morals in a godless world aren't subjective and arbitrary. Indeed, it seems to lend support to the belief that they are.
In any event, Woods closes on a bit of a downer:
Thirty years ago, Thomas Nagel wrote a shrewd essay entitled “The Absurd,” in which he argued that, just as we can “step back from the purposes of individual life and doubt their point, we can step back also from the progress of human history, or of science, or the success of a society, or the kingdom, power, and glory of God, and put all these things into question in the same way.” Secularism can seem as meaningless as religion when such doubt strikes. Nagel went on to conclude, calmly, that we shouldn’t worry too much, because if, under the eye of eternity, nothing matters “then that doesn’t matter either, and we can approach our absurd lives with irony instead of heroism or despair.” This is impeccably logical, and impishly offers a kind of secular deconstruction of secularism, but it is fairly cold comfort in the middle of the night.If nothing matters then it doesn't matter that nothing matters. So says Nagel. It seems to me, though, that any view of life that leads to the conclusion that nothing matters really should be resisted with all one's strength, and all the alternatives, especially those, like Christianity, which affirm that everything matters, should be given every chance to demonstrate their superiority and not just dismissed a priori.
Jesus Diaz
There are those on the left who sincerely dislike this country, but it's hard to find similar sentiment expressed on the right. At least it has been hard until now, but I suspect stories like this one might change that. It's hard to watch this and not think that our government is comprised of people who are either incredibly stupid or insidiously evil.
Perhaps there's more to this story than what we're being told, but unless that's so, and I have seen nothing yet to indicate that it is, it's hard to disagree with anything Beck says toward the end of this interview. I wish he would've mentioned the name of the judge and emphasized the name of the prosecutor. These people are an embarrassment and deserve public obloquy. They certainly make me embarrassed for my country.
Go here for more on this interview.
Go here for more on this interview.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Secularism and its Discontents (Pt. I)
Writer James Woods gives voice, in an interesting essay in the New Yorker, to the haunting sense of loss which grips many people in our secular age:
According to Woods, "Levine explains that the book’s aim is to explore the idea that secularism is a positive, not a negative, condition, not a denial of the world of spirit and of religion, but an affirmation of the world we’re living in now; that building our world on a foundation of the secular is essential to our contemporary well-being; and that such a world is capable of bringing us to the condition of ‘fullness’ that religion has always promised."
It's very hard to see this as anything more than whistling past the graveyard. Thinkers like Richard Dawkins are closer to the truth, I think, when they insist that: "The universe we observe has precisely the properties we should expect if there is, at bottom, no design, no purpose, no evil and no good, nothing but blind pitiless indifference."
But it's not just Dawkins who concludes that life is meaningless and that there's no purpose to the universe. Similar thoughts have been expressed by dozens of atheistic scientists, philosophers, novelists, and others who have reflected on the human predicament throughout the twentieth and twenty first centuries.
Consider this passage from Nobel-winning scientist Steven Weinberg: "[T]he worldview of science is rather chilling. [We find no] point to life laid out for us in nature, no objective basis for our moral principles, no correspondence between what we think is the moral law and the laws of nature...[W]e live on a knife-edge, between wishful thinking on one hand and, on the other, despair."
Or this from Somerset Maugham: "If death ends all ... I must ask myself what am I here for....Now the answer is plain but so unpalatable that most will not face it. There is no meaning for life and [thus] life has no meaning."
Woods goes on to talk about how one of the contributors to Levine's book handles the problem of trying to ground ethics in a godless world:
Atheist philosopher Richard Rorty saw this clearly when he observed that for the secular man there's no answer to the question, "Why not be cruel?" and Jeffrey Dahmer took his atheistic assumptions to their logical conclusion when he asked, "If it all happens naturalistically, what's the need for God? Can't I set my own rules? Who owns me? I own myself."
Secondly, I doubt very much, as I argue here, that the dilemma Socrates poses to Euthyphro is as formidable as Kitcher makes it out to be. Moreover, what of it if morality is indeed God's "plaything"? Isn't the entire universe, if God created it, His plaything? I don't understand why a morality inscribed by God on human hearts would be a worse thing than no morality at all just because it flows from the nature of the God who created the cosmos.
More thoughts on Woods' article tomorrow.
I have a friend, an analytic philosopher and convinced atheist, who told me that she sometimes wakes in the middle of the night, anxiously turning over a series of ultimate questions: “How can it be that this world is the result of an accidental big bang? How could there be no design, no metaphysical purpose? Can it be that every life—beginning with my own, my husband’s, my child’s, and spreading outward—is cosmically irrelevant?” In the current intellectual climate, atheists are not supposed to have such thoughts. We are locked into our rival certainties—religiosity on one side, secularism on the other—and to confess to weakness on this order is like a registered Democrat wondering if she is really a Republican, or vice versa.These are good questions Woods' friend asks herself in the dead of the night. George Levine sets out to answer them in a book he's edited and titled, perhaps improbably, The Joy of Secularism: 11 Essays for How We Live Now.
According to Woods, "Levine explains that the book’s aim is to explore the idea that secularism is a positive, not a negative, condition, not a denial of the world of spirit and of religion, but an affirmation of the world we’re living in now; that building our world on a foundation of the secular is essential to our contemporary well-being; and that such a world is capable of bringing us to the condition of ‘fullness’ that religion has always promised."
It's very hard to see this as anything more than whistling past the graveyard. Thinkers like Richard Dawkins are closer to the truth, I think, when they insist that: "The universe we observe has precisely the properties we should expect if there is, at bottom, no design, no purpose, no evil and no good, nothing but blind pitiless indifference."
But it's not just Dawkins who concludes that life is meaningless and that there's no purpose to the universe. Similar thoughts have been expressed by dozens of atheistic scientists, philosophers, novelists, and others who have reflected on the human predicament throughout the twentieth and twenty first centuries.
Consider this passage from Nobel-winning scientist Steven Weinberg: "[T]he worldview of science is rather chilling. [We find no] point to life laid out for us in nature, no objective basis for our moral principles, no correspondence between what we think is the moral law and the laws of nature...[W]e live on a knife-edge, between wishful thinking on one hand and, on the other, despair."
Or this from Somerset Maugham: "If death ends all ... I must ask myself what am I here for....Now the answer is plain but so unpalatable that most will not face it. There is no meaning for life and [thus] life has no meaning."
Woods goes on to talk about how one of the contributors to Levine's book handles the problem of trying to ground ethics in a godless world:
Many people, for instance, believe that morality is a deliverance of God, and that without God there is no morality—that in a secular world “everything is permitted.” You can hear this on Fox News; it is behind the drive to have the Ten Commandments displayed in courtrooms. But philosophers like Philip Kitcher remember what Socrates tells Euthyphro, who supposed that the good could be defined by what the gods had willed: if what the gods will is based on some other criterion of goodness, divine will isn’t what makes something good; but if goodness is simply determined by divine will there’s no way for us to assess that judgment.A couple things might be said about this. First, even if Kitcher is correct that Socrates' argument in The Euthyphro makes morality either independent of God or the product of God's arbitrary will, at least if there is a God there is a ground of moral duty. If there is no God then it's not that morality still exists on its own, with no need of God to give it warrant, it's that there simply cannot be any moral obligation to do anything at all. In a world without God there's no objective right or wrong, there are just feelings about right and wrong.
In other words, if you believe that God ordains morality—constitutes it through his will—you still have to decide where God gets morality from. If you are inclined to reply, “Well, God is goodness; He invents it,” you threaten to turn morality into God’s plaything, and you deprive yourself of any capacity to judge that morality.
Atheist philosopher Richard Rorty saw this clearly when he observed that for the secular man there's no answer to the question, "Why not be cruel?" and Jeffrey Dahmer took his atheistic assumptions to their logical conclusion when he asked, "If it all happens naturalistically, what's the need for God? Can't I set my own rules? Who owns me? I own myself."
Secondly, I doubt very much, as I argue here, that the dilemma Socrates poses to Euthyphro is as formidable as Kitcher makes it out to be. Moreover, what of it if morality is indeed God's "plaything"? Isn't the entire universe, if God created it, His plaything? I don't understand why a morality inscribed by God on human hearts would be a worse thing than no morality at all just because it flows from the nature of the God who created the cosmos.
More thoughts on Woods' article tomorrow.
Should We Make the Rich Poorer?
Libertarian law professor Richard Epstein was interviewed recently on PBS in response to the news that income inequality has grown over the last few years. Epstein defends that inequality with arguments that are as cogent as they should be obvious.
I confess to being personally disgusted at the huge bonuses given to Wall Street financiers by their shareholders, but though I think it contemptibly ostentatious and offensive it neither harms others nor is it economically unsound. To legislate against it, as the left wishes to do, puts them in the awkward position of advocating the imposition of their moral vision upon others, which is the very thing they've adamantly argued for fifty years has no place in a free, democratic society.
HT:Hot Air
The left seems indifferent to the power of Epstein's deposition. They often seem to care only that some people have more of the world's goods than do others, and, since they believe that to be an unjust state of affairs, they demand that the rich have their excess taken from them and given to people who have little. Lincoln's caution that Epstein quotes is apposite, however. We can't make the poor richer by making the rich poorer, even though that's precisely what the left thinks can be, and should be, done.Watch Does U.S. Economic Inequality Have a Good Side? on PBS.
I confess to being personally disgusted at the huge bonuses given to Wall Street financiers by their shareholders, but though I think it contemptibly ostentatious and offensive it neither harms others nor is it economically unsound. To legislate against it, as the left wishes to do, puts them in the awkward position of advocating the imposition of their moral vision upon others, which is the very thing they've adamantly argued for fifty years has no place in a free, democratic society.
HT:Hot Air
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
What's Worse Than Despicable?
Actor/comedian Orlando Jones tweeted the other day that "if liberals want respect they should kill Sarah Palin". Real knee slapper, that one. Substitute the name of the president for that of Sarah Palin and what do you think the reaction in the media would, and should, be?
Of course, since Jones is himself a liberal there's just silence in the media about his comment. It reminds me of when Alec Baldwin, on a late night talk show, called for people to go to the home of Henry Hyde and stone him to death, him and his family, and the audience cheered wildly.
"Despicable" just doesn't seem to be an adequate adjective to describe behavior like Jones, Baldwin, or his audience displayed, nor is it adequate to describe the pass they're given by the media.
Of course, since Jones is himself a liberal there's just silence in the media about his comment. It reminds me of when Alec Baldwin, on a late night talk show, called for people to go to the home of Henry Hyde and stone him to death, him and his family, and the audience cheered wildly.
"Despicable" just doesn't seem to be an adequate adjective to describe behavior like Jones, Baldwin, or his audience displayed, nor is it adequate to describe the pass they're given by the media.
The Big Question
Peter Schiff wades in among the 99% and poses the big question: What, exactly, is a fair share for the rich to pay in taxes? Unsurprisingly, the OWS folks don't seem to have given the matter much thought:
HT: HotAir
Whale Echolocation
This animated video depicts a sperm whale hunting prey, including a giant squid, by echolocation.
Until recently the consensus opinion among biologists was that whales evolved from land animals, but recent finds have made this view increasingly untenable. Not only is the window of available time for all the requisite changes to adapt a terrestrial creature to a marine environment very narrow, but the sheer number and scope of the changes strains credulity. Here are a few of the changes that would need to have occurred within the span of about 3-5 million years:
- Counter-current heat exchanger for intra-abdominal testes
- Ball vertebra
- Tail flukes and musculature
- Blubber for temperature insulation
- Ability to drink sea water (reorganization of kidney tissues)
- Fetus in breech position (for labor underwater)
- Nurse young underwater (modified mammae)
- Forelimbs transformed into flippers
- Reduction of hindlimbs
- Reduction/loss of pelvis and sacral vertebrae
- Reorganization of the musculature for the reproductive organs
- Hydrodynamic properties of the skin
- Special lung surfactants
- Novel muscle systems for the blowhole
- Modification of the teeth
- Modification of the eye for underwater vision
- Emergence and expansion of the mandibular fat pad with complex lipid distribution
- Reorganization of skull bones and musculature
- Modification of the ear bones
- Decoupling of esophagus and trachea
- Synthesis and metabolism of isovaleric acid (toxic to terrestrial mammals)
- Emergence of blowhole musculature and their neurological control
The problem of transitional forms remains a serious difficulty for any kind of "molecules to man" evolutionary hypothesis, as this article at Evolution News and Views illustrates. It may have happened that all forms of life on earth are descended from a single ancestral form, but it seems that the more we discover the less evidence there is for it.Whale Evolution vs. The Actual Fossil Evidence from Philip Cunningham on Vimeo.
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Light at the End of the Tunnel
Contrary to the doom and gloom of many analysts, British journalist Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of The Telegraph paints a fairly optimistic picture of the American near future. From his perch in England he writes that:
He concludes with this:
If Evans-Pritchard is right the U.S. economy will resume it's global dominance within the next five years as long as it's not strangled in the crib by regulations and taxes imposed by politicians ideologically averse to American dominance in the world.
The American phoenix is slowly rising again. Within five years or so, the US will be well on its way to self-sufficiency in fuel and energy. Manufacturing will have closed the labour gap with China in a clutch of key industries. The current account might even be in surplus.What accounts for Evans-Pritchard's contrarian view? He explains that the biggest driver of an American renewal is abundant energy:
The making of computers, electrical equipment, machinery, autos and other goods may shift back to the US from China.
Assumptions that the Great Republic must inevitably spiral into economic and strategic decline - so like the chatter of the late 1980s, when Japan was in vogue - will seem wildly off the mark by then.
Telegraph readers already know about the "shale gas revolution" that has turned America into the world’s number one producer of natural gas, ahead of Russia. Less known is that the technology of hydraulic fracturing - breaking rocks with jets of water - will also bring a quantum leap in shale oil supply, mostly from the Bakken fields in North Dakota, Eagle Ford in Texas, and other reserves across the Mid-West.He also thinks that the Chinese economic success will ultimately prove unsustainable:
"The US was the single largest contributor to global oil supply growth last year, with a net 395,000 barrels per day," said Francisco Blanch from Bank of America, comparing the Dakota fields to a new North Sea.
Total US shale output is "set to expand dramatically" as fresh sources come on stream, possibly reaching 5.5 million barrels per day by mid-decade. This is a tenfold rise since 2009.
The US already meets 72% of its own oil needs, up from around 50% a decade ago.
"The implications of this shift are very large for geopolitics, energy security, historical military alliances and economic activity. As US reliance on the Middle East continues to drop, Europe is turning more dependent and will likely become more exposed to rent-seeking behaviour from oligopolistic players," said Mr Blanch.
Meanwhile, the China-US seesaw is about to swing the other way. Offshoring is out, 're-inshoring' is the new fashion.There's more on these positive indicators for the future at the link.
"Made in America, Again" - a report this month by Boston Consulting Group - said Chinese wage inflation running at 16% a year for a decade has closed much of the cost gap. China is no longer the "default location" for cheap plants supplying the US.
A "tipping point" is near in computers, electrical equipment, machinery, autos and motor parts, plastics and rubber, fabricated metals, and even furniture.
"A surprising amount of work that rushed to China over the past decade could soon start to come back," said BCG's Harold Sirkin.
The gap in "productivity-adjusted wages" will narrow from 22% of US levels in 2005 to 43% (61% for the US South) by 2015. Add in [China's] shipping costs, reliability woes, technology piracy, and the advantage shifts back to the US.
He concludes with this:
The switch in advantage to the US is relative. It does not imply a healthy US recovery. The global depression will grind on as much of the Western world tightens fiscal policy and slowly purges debt, and as China deflates its credit bubble.Evans-Pritchard doesn't mention it, but it's hard not to see that both of the drivers of this possible American resurgence are opposed by the Obama administration and the American left. Increased fossil fuel production and the attractiveness to business of the American south where right to work laws and non-union shops make business much more efficient and profitable than elsewhere in the country are both attributes that the left would reverse if they could.
Yet America retains a pack of trump cards, and not just in sixteen of the world’s top twenty universities.
It is almost the only economic power with a fertility rate above 2.0 - and therefore the ability to outgrow debt - in sharp contrast to the demographic decay awaiting Japan, China, Korea, Germany, Italy, and Russia.
The 21st Century may be American after all, just like the last.
If Evans-Pritchard is right the U.S. economy will resume it's global dominance within the next five years as long as it's not strangled in the crib by regulations and taxes imposed by politicians ideologically averse to American dominance in the world.
Population Implosion
In the 1960s people like Stanford biologist Paul Ehrlich were predicting world wide starvation, war, and chaos before the turn of the century due to exploding global population. Largely because of technological advances in agricultural production it didn't happen.
Now demographers are forecasting that the world's population is likely to implode over the next two centuries and that this decline will make the world a very different place. Reuters has a fascinating story about this projected crash. You should read the whole piece, but here are some excerpts:
If birthrates were closer to the European Union average of 1.5 then population would fall below 5 billion around 2140 and 3 billion by 2200. In contrast, maintaining the current rate of 2.5 would see it top 15 billion by 2100.
If life expectancies also fall these rates of decline would all be accelerated. These really are startling statistics.
Declines like these would place extraordinary pressure on countries which try to provide care for their elderly. Such care is possible when the population distribution is pyramidal with lots of young workers supporting a relative few elderly, but should the pyramid be inverted, as the above projections suggest they may be, it's hard to see how it could be sustained.
Or not. Fertility rates could buck current trends and remain at 2.5 children per couple worldwide. The future, after all, is a difficult thing to predict. Just ask Paul Ehrlich.
Now demographers are forecasting that the world's population is likely to implode over the next two centuries and that this decline will make the world a very different place. Reuters has a fascinating story about this projected crash. You should read the whole piece, but here are some excerpts:
If the world follows the demographic habits of Europe -- and that's a big if -- by the year 2200 it could be home to a population of less than half its current level, living in housing built for almost three times that number.If birthrates fall to the same level as those of Shanghai, at around 0.8 per couple, then by the early 22nd century population would be falling so fast that it would drop from the 9 billion expected to inhabit the planet by 2070 to under a billion by 2150, a span of only 80 years.
With the global population estimated to pass 7 billion on October 31, many of policymakers' short-term worries revolve around providing resources for the additional 2-3 billion people expected to be born in the next half-century.
Numbers of this magnitude inevitably conjure up terrifying visions of shortage and chaos. But in fact improvements in food production and technology have allowed population growth to continue unimpeded and relatively smoothly, and the real potential nightmare is of a rapidly aging population, combined with collapsing birthrates in both rich and poor states.
Many demographers and long-term planners say the challenge for the next century will be less dealing with growing numbers of people and more managing the much larger population of aged and perhaps dependent people while finding new strategies to deliver prosperity, jobs and essential services.
The trend has already contributed to the current global financial crisis by driving up health and social care bills and perhaps also undermining productivity. But while politicians tie themselves in knots over short-term worries, experts say there is not enough discussion of longer-term demographic challenges.
If birthrates were closer to the European Union average of 1.5 then population would fall below 5 billion around 2140 and 3 billion by 2200. In contrast, maintaining the current rate of 2.5 would see it top 15 billion by 2100.
If life expectancies also fall these rates of decline would all be accelerated. These really are startling statistics.
Declines like these would place extraordinary pressure on countries which try to provide care for their elderly. Such care is possible when the population distribution is pyramidal with lots of young workers supporting a relative few elderly, but should the pyramid be inverted, as the above projections suggest they may be, it's hard to see how it could be sustained.
By 2030, more than a third of the population in a number of Western states as well as some Asian economies, such as Japan and Korea, will be aged over 65.Currently, fertility is still high in many of the world's poorer countries and the aging nations can import workers from them to sustain their elderly populations but even this expediency, which poses significant dangers to the cultural survival of the importing nation, won't last. The pool of available labor in poorer countries is also expected to eventually diminish.
Many developing states, most notably China with its one-child policy but also a growing number of other nations, will follow suit -- often without the financial resources to help pay for the cost of medical and nursing care.
"It's the seminal issue of our time," says Michael Hodin, executive director of the New York-based Global Coalition on Aging and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
"The numbers are stunning. The exact projections vary but it doesn't really matter because they are all going in the same direction."
Exact predictions vary, but most projections suggest the global population will peak at around 9 billion around 2070 and then start to fall, perhaps very fast.In other words, by the end of this century the world's population could be in a rapid descent which would make the world poorer, resources more scarce, and violence more prevalent.
Or not. Fertility rates could buck current trends and remain at 2.5 children per couple worldwide. The future, after all, is a difficult thing to predict. Just ask Paul Ehrlich.
Monday, October 24, 2011
How "Bork" Became a Verb
A question one hears frequently among young people interested in contemporary political doings is why our discourse is so raw. Why is it, people wonder, that there's so much animosity between Republicans and Democrats and so much invective in our political life? Conservatives usually reply that the hostility goes back to two Supreme Court nominations in which the reputations and careers of two men were destroyed by Democrats in order to try to keep them off the Court.
In the first case, that of Robert Bork (1987), the tactic worked. In the second, the confirmation of Clarence Thomas (1991), it didn't, but the scars left by the ugliness and relentless attempts to destroy these men left a very bitter taste in the mouths of many observers and set the tone for the debased rhetoric of the next two decades.
Those confirmation hearings were doubtless the backstory behind the impeachment of Bill Clinton by Republicans, which was in turn the impetus behind the awful treatment by Democrats of George W. Bush.
In any case, Joe Nocera, a columnist at The New York Times writes about the Bork case in a piece that recounts how even those involved in the slander of this highly qualified jurist admitted what they were doing. After describing Bork's qualifications for the Court Nocera writes:
And so it goes.
In the first case, that of Robert Bork (1987), the tactic worked. In the second, the confirmation of Clarence Thomas (1991), it didn't, but the scars left by the ugliness and relentless attempts to destroy these men left a very bitter taste in the mouths of many observers and set the tone for the debased rhetoric of the next two decades.
Those confirmation hearings were doubtless the backstory behind the impeachment of Bill Clinton by Republicans, which was in turn the impetus behind the awful treatment by Democrats of George W. Bush.
In any case, Joe Nocera, a columnist at The New York Times writes about the Bork case in a piece that recounts how even those involved in the slander of this highly qualified jurist admitted what they were doing. After describing Bork's qualifications for the Court Nocera writes:
I’ll take it one step further. The Bork fight, in some ways, was the beginning of the end of civil discourse in politics. For years afterward, conservatives seethed at the “systematic demonization” of Bork, recalls Clint Bolick, a longtime conservative legal activist. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution coined the angry verb “to bork,” which meant to destroy a nominee by whatever means necessary. When Republicans borked the Democratic House Speaker Jim Wright less than two years later, there wasn’t a trace of remorse, not after what the Democrats had done to Bork. The anger between Democrats and Republicans, the unwillingness to work together, the profound mistrust — the line from Bork to today’s ugly politics is a straight one.Nocera's concluding sentence will not be welcome by many liberals, but it's good advice all the same:
It is, to be sure, completely understandable that the Democrats wanted to keep Bork off the court. Lewis Powell, the great moderate, was stepping down, which would be leaving the court evenly divided between conservatives and liberals. There was tremendous fear that if Bork were confirmed, he would swing the court to the conservatives and important liberal victories would be overturned — starting with Roe v. Wade.
But liberals couldn’t just come out and say that. “If this were carried out as an internal Senate debate,” Ann Lewis, the Democratic activist, would later acknowledge, “we would have deep and thoughtful discussions about the Constitution, and then we would lose.” So, instead, the Democrats sought to portray Bork as “a right-wing loony,” to use a phrase in a memo written by the Advocacy Institute, a liberal lobby group.
The character assassination began the day Bork was nominated, when Ted Kennedy gave a fiery speech describing “Robert Bork’s America” as a place “in which women would be forced into back-alley abortions, blacks would sit at segregated lunch counters,” and so on. It continued until the day the nomination was voted down; one ad, for instance, claimed, absurdly, that Bork wanted to give “women workers the choice between sterilization and their job.”
Conservatives were stunned by the relentlessness — and the essential unfairness — of the attacks. But the truth is that many of the liberals fighting the nomination also knew they were unfair. That same Advocacy Institute memo noted that, “Like it or not, Bork falls (perhaps barely) at the borderline of respectability.” It didn’t matter. He had to be portrayed “as an extreme ideological activist.” The ends were used to justify some truly despicable means.
[T]he point remains this: The next time a liberal asks why Republicans are so intransigent, you might suggest that the answer lies in the mirror.The invective shows no signs of an imminent abatement. Nancy Pelosi informs us that Republicans want women to bleed to death on the floor, others insist that Republicans want to see blacks swinging at the end of a rope. Morgan Freeman is quite certain that opposition to Mr. Obama is due to the fact that he's black, and, indeed, the left finds themselves taking every opportunity to shout that the entire Tea Party is a bunch of racists, despite the utter lack of evidence for their claim, and much counterevidence against it.
And so it goes.
Swell
Jonathan Tobin at Commentary informs us that the thousand or so Palestinian murderers and thugs recently released from Israeli jails will be awarded financial grants from both Hamas and Fatah:
There's a pervasive sickness afflicting these people, an all-consuming hatred and blood lust, and though we must deal with them we must never delude ourselves into thinking that they think the way Westerners think.
It is no secret that Hamas was strengthened by the conclusion of its ransom deal with Israel in which over one thousand Palestinian terrorists were freed in exchange for the safe return of Gilad Shalit. But its Fatah rivals are not taking this triumph lying down. In the wake of the announcement that Hamas will be paying each of the released killers, almost all of whom are either directly or indirectly responsible for the murders of Jews, a bonus of $2,000, the Palestinian Authority has also decreed that it will be paying every one of the murderers a separate honorarium though the amount was not specified.Leave aside the question of what our leaders in Washington are thinking when they facilitate the transfer of money from your pocket to the pockets of people who have murdered Israeli children, and ask instead what kind of human beings these must be who would actually celebrate and reward horrific acts not unlike those perpetrated by the two Palestinians who savagely murdered an Israeli family of five while they slept in their beds.
That PA leader Mahmoud Abbas, the man that is supposed to be Israel’s peace partner, will pay this cash reward for murder, is an irony that is lost on an Obama administration that continues to urge the Jewish state to make concessions to the PA.
This is of more than passing interest to American readers since hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. taxpayer funds are transferred to the Palestinian Authority every year. That means Uncle Sam is paying a subsidy to mass murderers. That’s a not insignificant point to remember when Congress decides whether or not to continue the flow of aid to the PA.
There's a pervasive sickness afflicting these people, an all-consuming hatred and blood lust, and though we must deal with them we must never delude ourselves into thinking that they think the way Westerners think.
Saturday, October 22, 2011
Embryonic Solar System
Uncommon Descent tips us to an article by Kate Taylor in TG Daily on the discovery of an embryonic solar system in a distant constellation in our galaxy. The significance of this discovery is that the system contains enormous amounts of water:
The question arises because naturalistic evolutionists have been predicting for decades that life is almost inevitable wherever the physical prerequisites exist. However, if those prerequisites turn out to exist commonly throughout the galaxy but no life is discovered that would have devastating implications for the view that natural processes and forces are adequate by themselves to produce life.
On the other hand, if life is discovered elsewhere it would not necessarily have a serious bearing on the belief that intelligent agency is necessary to bring it about unless it turns out that the chasms of biochemical improbability that need to be traversed in order to produce life are not as prohibitively wide as they are on earth.
The star TW Hydrae, 176 light years away in the constellation Hydra, is surrounded by enough water to fill Earth's oceans thousands of times over.
![]() |
| TW Hydrae |
"This tells us that the key materials that life needs are present in a system before planets are born," says University of Michigan astronomy professor Ted Bergin, a HIFI co-investigator.UD closes their post on this discovery with a provocative question: "If many phenomena like this turn up, but life is not detected, would that set of circumstances be taken to mean anything?"
While warm water vapor's previously been found in planet-forming disks close to the central star, this is the first time that such a vast quantity has been discovered in the cooler, far reaches of disks where comets and giant planets take shape.
"The detection of water sticking to dust grains throughout the planet-forming disk would be similar to events in our own solar system’s evolution, where over millions of years, these dust grains would then coalesce to form comets," says said principal investigator Michiel Hogerheijde of Leiden University in the Netherlands.
"These would be a prime delivery mechanism for water on planetary bodies."
Comets are believed to have delivered a significant portion of Earth's oceans, with comet Hartley 2 recently found to have the same chemical composition as our oceans.
The question arises because naturalistic evolutionists have been predicting for decades that life is almost inevitable wherever the physical prerequisites exist. However, if those prerequisites turn out to exist commonly throughout the galaxy but no life is discovered that would have devastating implications for the view that natural processes and forces are adequate by themselves to produce life.
On the other hand, if life is discovered elsewhere it would not necessarily have a serious bearing on the belief that intelligent agency is necessary to bring it about unless it turns out that the chasms of biochemical improbability that need to be traversed in order to produce life are not as prohibitively wide as they are on earth.
Rationale or Rationalization?
We here at Viewpoint have been following the refusal of prominent atheist Richard Dawkins to defend his attacks on theism in debate against philosopher William Lane Craig. Dawkins has now written a column for The Guardian in which he gives his rationale for ducking Craig. It's vintage Dawkins, arrogant, insulting, and lame, but perhaps the silliest part is where he seeks to justify his non-appearance at the debate by citing Craig's views on the Canaanite massacre:
Moreover, even if it's granted that Craig's justification of the genocidal passages in Deuteronomy is inadequate, why is that a reason not to debate him on the completely separate question of the existence of God? The two issues have nothing to do with each other. Whatever the proper understanding of those horrific Old Testament events may be they have nothing to do with the topic of God's existence. They may bear on the question of whether the Old Testament is correct, whether the relevant passages are being interpreted properly, or even on the nature of God, but not at all on the question of whether there is or is not a God.
Dawkins is using what rhetoricians call a red herring to draw attention away from the fact that he simply doesn't want to engage in a debate he realizes he might well lose. It would be as if a vociferous critic of President Obama's economic policies, say, Sean Hannity, was challenged by Obama or a prominent surrogate to a debate, and Hannity declined because Obama supports partial birth abortion and voted as a state senator to keep infanticide legal in Illinois.
I think if Hannity were to decline the challenge on such grounds it would look to most people very much like he was simply afraid of suffering the public humiliation of being made to look like a buffoon. Many would conclude that he was just an egotistical gasbag, an intellectual fraud, and it'd be hard to gainsay that conclusion.
The difference is it's hard to imagine Hannity shrinking from an opportunity to debate Mr. Obama, but it's not hard to imagine Dawkins shrinking from a debate with Craig. That's what, in fact, he appears to be doing.
But Craig is not just a figure of fun. He has a dark side, and that is putting it kindly. Most churchmen these days wisely disown the horrific genocides ordered by the God of the Old Testament. Anyone who criticises the divine bloodlust is loudly accused of unfairly ignoring the historical context, and of naive literalism towards what was never more than metaphor or myth.If this were really Dawkins' reason for not debating Craig why didn't he say so months ago? It has about it the odor of a rationalization discovered ex post facto and pressed into service to turn Dawkins' timorousness into moral virtue. Why not, if Dawkins thinks this is such an execrable position for Craig to take, get Craig on a public stage and make him defend it?
You would search far to find a modern preacher willing to defend God's commandment, in Deuteronomy 20: 13-15, to kill all the men in a conquered city and to seize the women, children and livestock as plunder. And verses 16 and 17 are even worse:
"But of the cities of these people, which the LORD thy God doth give thee for an inheritance, thou shalt save alive nothing that breatheth: But thou shalt utterly destroy them"You might say that such a call to genocide could never have come from a good and loving God. Any decent bishop, priest, vicar or rabbi would agree. But listen to Craig. He begins by arguing that the Canaanites were debauched and sinful and therefore deserved to be slaughtered. He then notices the plight of the Canaanite children.
"But why take the lives of innocent children? The terrible totality of the destruction was undoubtedly related to the prohibition of assimilation to pagan nations on Israel's part. In commanding complete destruction of the Canaanites, the Lord says, 'You shall not intermarry with them, giving your daughters to their sons, or taking their daughters for your sons, for they would turn away your sons from following me, to serve other gods' (Deut 7.3-4). […] God knew that if these Canaanite children were allowed to live, they would spell the undoing of Israel.Do not plead that I have taken these revolting words out of context. What context could possibly justify them?
[…] Moreover, if we believe, as I do, that God's grace is extended to those who die in infancy or as small children, the death of these children was actually their salvation. We are so wedded to an earthly, naturalistic perspective that we forget that those who die are happy to quit this earth for heaven's incomparable joy. Therefore, God does these children no wrong in taking their lives."
Would you shake hands with a man who could write stuff like that? Would you share a platform with him? I wouldn't, and I won't. Even if I were not engaged to be in London on the day in question, I would be proud to leave that chair in Oxford eloquently empty.
And if any of my colleagues find themselves browbeaten or inveigled into a debate with this deplorable apologist for genocide, my advice to them would be to stand up, read aloud Craig's words as quoted above, then walk out and leave him talking not just to an empty chair but, one would hope, to a rapidly emptying hall as well.
Moreover, even if it's granted that Craig's justification of the genocidal passages in Deuteronomy is inadequate, why is that a reason not to debate him on the completely separate question of the existence of God? The two issues have nothing to do with each other. Whatever the proper understanding of those horrific Old Testament events may be they have nothing to do with the topic of God's existence. They may bear on the question of whether the Old Testament is correct, whether the relevant passages are being interpreted properly, or even on the nature of God, but not at all on the question of whether there is or is not a God.
Dawkins is using what rhetoricians call a red herring to draw attention away from the fact that he simply doesn't want to engage in a debate he realizes he might well lose. It would be as if a vociferous critic of President Obama's economic policies, say, Sean Hannity, was challenged by Obama or a prominent surrogate to a debate, and Hannity declined because Obama supports partial birth abortion and voted as a state senator to keep infanticide legal in Illinois.
I think if Hannity were to decline the challenge on such grounds it would look to most people very much like he was simply afraid of suffering the public humiliation of being made to look like a buffoon. Many would conclude that he was just an egotistical gasbag, an intellectual fraud, and it'd be hard to gainsay that conclusion.
The difference is it's hard to imagine Hannity shrinking from an opportunity to debate Mr. Obama, but it's not hard to imagine Dawkins shrinking from a debate with Craig. That's what, in fact, he appears to be doing.
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