Matt Margolis, from whom we borrowed in an earlier post to give us some perspective on where the U.S. stands relative to other nations in per capita cases and per capita deaths from covid-19 has another interesting post at PJ Media on what our numbers would look like if we bracketed out downstate New York where the bulk of the cases have occurred.
In other words, what is the situation in the huge expanse of territory that comprises the United States if we treated downstate New York as a separate country? Margolis shows that the numbers from downstate New York are heavily skewing the statistics for both New York state and the country as a whole.
For perspective I borrowed this graphic from his post:
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| Downstate New York is in blue |
Using the latest data, Margolis finds that the U.S. as a whole ranks 7th in the world in covid cases per million people, but if you exclude the 12 million or so residents of eight downstate counties that encompass New York City and surrounding areas, that ranking drops to 13th in the world. In fact, if we treat those counties as a separate country they would rank #1 in the world in covid cases per million people.
Of course, actual cases are hard to determine because there simply isn't enough testing being done to measure how many people have or have had the virus. A more accurate indicator is fatalities, so when Margolis looks at fatalities per million he finds that the United States as a whole would rank 8th in the world.
Removing the fatalities in downstate New York, however, drops the U.S. to 11th and makes those eight New York counties #1.
None of these comparisons, by the way, includes Iran, Russia or China whose cases and fatalities reports are deemed untrustworthy.
Margolis concludes with this:
What we can see from the data is just how much downstate New York is skewing the data for the United States. What this tells us is that there shouldn't be a one-size-fits-all approach to social distancing or reopening the country. I feel pretty safe where I live, but because I'm in New York State, and Governor Cuomo is treating the whole state like it is downstate, I have to abide by the same statewide restrictions.Check out his post at PJMedia for details. What Margolis says about having to abide by statewide restrictions is true not only of residents of New York but of many other states which have counties of denser populations where restrictions make more sense than they do in the rest of the state. Yet the state governments don't make distinctions when they impose their restrictions.
Further, if the media ever chose to look at the country's numbers the way I have, they'd see that the overwhelming majority of the country is doing much, much better than it appears to be when you include downstate New York in our numbers. The media wants you to believe that President Trump botched the federal government's response to the coronavirus. This is clearly not true. Even with downstate's tallies we don't lead the world in cases or deaths per capita.
Treating downstate as its own country shows just how much local leadership impacts containment and mitigation.
Nor, in some cases, do they make any attempt at consistency or rationality. Michigan's governor, Gretchen Whitmer, has decreed that you can shop in a Home Depot, but you're prohibited from buying certain items in the store, like garden plants, that are deemed "inessential."
If you're allowed into the store what's the point of telling you you can't buy garden plants? Do garden plants make people more vulnerable to covid?
Her policy also allows one to canoe on Michigan waterways but ban the use of motorized craft. What's the rationale for that? Are outboard motors known to harbor the virus? Do they somehow fling the virus across the water to other boaters?
Examples of arbitrary and poorly conceived restrictions are not hard to find. They do nothing to minimize risk but do a lot to diminish even further the trust and confidence people have in their government.
