I write this on November 6th while the vote tallies in several major states are still incomplete. Nevertheless, assuming the trends which show Mr. Biden heading to the White House are correct the good news for conservatives is that the news isn't all bad.
I'm pretty sure that had voters judged Mr. Trump on the basis of what he has accomplished for the country and the world and not on the basis of his lamentable personal characteristics or the portrait the media has been at pains to paint of him - in other words, if Americans judged Trump like they judge their music and movie celebrities - the President would have won easily.
But be that as it may, the election results were in some respects encouraging for conservative Republicans and less so for Democrats. In fact, just about the only reason the Democrats have for rejoicing is that their candidate won the presidency. Everything else for them is rather bad news. Here's why:
1. The Democrats had high expectations for a "blue wave" which would sweep large numbers of Democrats into office at the national and state level and give them control of the nation's destiny for generations into the future, but the wave never materialized.
The Republicans appear to have retained control of the Senate despite having almost twice as many members up for reelection than did the Democrats (23/12). Republican control of the Senate will stifle any plans the Democrats may have had to "expand" the courts, add states to the union, abolish the electoral college and end the filibuster.
Moreover, any radical economic legislation, such as the Green New Deal, issuing from the House of Representatives will be Dead on Arrival in the Senate.
Any judges that Mr. Biden would have opportunity to appoint will have to be reasonably moderate since Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell can block or slow walk any radical progressives which might come up for confirmation.
2. Contrary to expectations, the Democrats picked up no seats in the House and stand to actually lose a dozen or more which may slow down the legislative ambitions of the leftmost members of the chamber. They anticipated gaining as many as fifteen seats, but they've lost, at this point in the counting, about ten and may ultimately lose even more.
Since the minority party usually does well in mid-term elections when the other party holds the White House, the GOP may be poised to take back the House in 2022.
3. Also contrary to expectations, as of this writing, no state legislatures were flipped from Republican to Democrat, but one was flipped the other way.
Likewise with state governorships where the GOP picked up one.
4. The Democrats suffered a severe erosion in their base constituency, especially among Hispanics. Minorities voted for Republicans in numbers not seen since 1960. Barack Obama promised to bring the races together, but did little or nothing to accomplish it. Trump has made a surprising start, especially given the relentless media narrative that he's an inveterate racist.
There appears to be a tectonic shift taking place in American politics. Throughout much of the 20th century Democrats were seen as the party of the working class and minorities while Republicans were perceived to be the party of the wealthy corporate execs. Today that's reversing. Republicans are rapidly gaining traction with the working class and minorities and the Democratic party is populated with rich celebrities and fat cat CEOs from Silicon Valley, Wall Street and elsewhere.
One caveat about this, though. The shift may be more a function of President Trump's popularity with blue collar workers and minorities than a function of their fondness for the Republican party. Unless the party learns something about governance from Mr. Trump, its popularity with these groups may prove ephemeral.
In any case, perhaps the biggest advantage of a Biden presidency for Democrats will be that he'll be able to revoke all of Mr. Trump's executive orders, the same orders which were largely responsible for the pre-pandemic economic boom. Despite his campaign promises and the pressure he'll be under from the progressive wing of his party, I'm not sure Mr. Biden is going to be eager to do that.
5. The media, both the news media and social media, as well as most pollsters, have taken an enormous and well-earned hit to their credibility. Having forecast a Democratic blowout they're left having to explain how they could've gotten it so badly wrong. Again.
6. Even if he serves his entire four year term (and that's a huge "if") Mr. Biden will almost certainly be a one term president. Mr. Trump could run again in 2024 if he wishes. He'd be the same age then as Mr. Biden is now, so his age shouldn't prevent him from running and winning.
Of course, this assumes that when the final vote counts are in and the lawsuits are all adjudicated Mr. Biden will have prevailed and Mr. Trump will have come up short. As of right now, however, that's by no means a certainty.
