The News for Russia Is Pretty Bad

What with all of the news here at home about President Biden's sundry pratfalls a lot of folks have lost track of what's happening in the Russia/Ukraine war. Here's an update courtesy of Strategy Page:

Russia is desperate for some good news out of Ukraine, where Russian forces have suffered one failure after another.

Sensing an opportunity, Russian forces have suffered heavy casualties trying to push Ukrainian forces out of a few key locations in the Donetsk province, which is part of Russian occupied Donbas. Russia has been using Wagner Group mercenaries for most of the attacks because these troops are more effectively led and willing to continue making seemingly suicidal attacks on Ukrainian forces.

The Ukrainian defenders are special operations troops whose orders are to inflict maximum casualties on the attacker while minimizing enemy advances and Ukrainian casualties.

December 28, 2022: Ukraine reported that at least 620 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded on the 25th. Many of the wounded have since died because Russia still lacks sufficient medical facilities inside Ukraine and lacks the transportation resources to fly casualties to better medical facilities in Russia.

Since the invasion began, 102,000 Russian troops have been killed, wounded or reported missing. Ukraine reports a growing number of Russian soldiers surrendering or deserting. These are often returned in prisoner exchanges.

A growing number of Russian prisoners of war resist being part of these exchanges because they deliberately deserted and face prosecution and prison if they return to Russia. Some of the Russian soldiers who were legitimate prisoners were prosecuted after being exchanged because the Russian government wanted more former prisoners jailed to discourage surrendering.

The current state of the Russian military cannot support any Russian military objectives in Ukraine, or anywhere else. What Russia lost in Ukraine will take years to replace. For example, most of the infantry officers the army had in 2021 have already been killed, captured or disabled in Ukraine.

There were no replacements for the lost infantry officers so Russia tried calling up retired officers and transferring non-infantry officers to lead infantry units. That did not work.

Another problem is the lack of NCOs (Non-Commissioned Officers). These have been a staple of Western armies for centuries and are often capable of replacing infantry officers lost in combat. Russia abolished NCOs a century ago and has not been able to rebuild that after more than a decade of trying.

Any New Russian Army will take years to create and currently the loss of officers and experienced soldiers has Russia depending on Belarussian instructors to train new Russian troops. This is done in Belarus to the extent possible because Belarus’s tiny army has much smaller training capability than the pre-2022 Russian army.

Almost all new troops in Russia get no training at all and are just given uniforms, assault rifles and transportation to Ukraine where they find few officers to lead them and not much in the way of supplies, especially food, to sustain them. Because of the dismal current situation, the announcement of a new Russian Army is seen as a morale building exercise for pro-war Russians and the few army personnel who still support the war.

Putin's invasion of Ukraine almost one year ago is on track to be one of the greatest military blunders in history, certainly since WWII. That he can survive this decision and the damage and humiliation that has been wrought on the Russian military because of it grows more unlikely with every passing month.