Trump Resurgent?

Horror movie plots sometimes feature a fearsome antagonist who seems unkillable. We may be seeing something similar in our nation's political life. Just when everyone thought Donald Trump's star was fading and that it was time to write his political obituary he may well be surging back to terrorize Republicans and Democrats alike.

Matthew Continetti at The Washington Free Beacon explains that after watching Trump suffer wounds that would've been fatal to mortal politicians his enemies in both parties are making the same mistakes they made in 2016.

He writes:

Donald Trump spent the final months of 2022 reeling from electoral setbacks and media disasters. Many of his high-profile endorsements in the midterm elections flopped. His attacks on popular GOP governors in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Georgia did little damage to their reputations.

His 2024 campaign launch was a snooze. His infamous and inexcusable dinner at Mar-a-Lago with high-profile anti-Semites put him on the political fringe. By the end of last year, Trump appeared to be fading from the national conversation. His chances of winning the Republican nomination seemed to dim.

Now those chances are brightening. Trump continues to dominate in polls of Republicans. He's drawn even with President Biden in head-to-head matchups. He lobbied successfully for Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) to become speaker of the House of Representatives.

His loyalists on the House Judiciary, Oversight, and Weaponization of the Federal Government committees will be sure to advance his interests. He's plotting his return to Facebook, Instagram, and possibly Twitter, and his connection with the Republican base remains strong.

Most important of all, Trump's rivals in both the Democratic and Republican parties are repeating the mistakes they made in the run-up to the 2016 election. The Democrats assume that there is no way for Trump to become president, while Republicans believe he will fade from the scene.

Their failure to learn from history has made it possible not only for Trump to win the GOP nomination for the third straight time, but to pull another inside straight in the Electoral College and return to the White House. For decades, Trump has said that the political class is corrupt, insular, and incompetent, and that Republican leaders lack guts. Washington is doing its best to prove him right.

Continetti goes on to explain why Trump has begun to rebound from his disastrous 2022, and his essay is a very interesting piece of political analysis. Even so, whether Trump can come all the way back from his nadir of two years ago to regain the White House is still uncertain.

Continetti closes with this:

The presidential campaign is just beginning. No one knows what lies ahead. The Trump rebound may soon pass and won't come again. There's a sleeper candidate or two out there who will make this race interesting.

For now, though, Democrats and Republicans are gambling that they can behave in 2024 just like they did in 2016, but produce a different result.

One thing, at least, is reasonably certain: For those who pay at least a bit of attention to politics the next twenty two months will be fascinating.