Donald Trump and Joe Biden will square off against each other tomorrow night in the first of two presidential debates this campaign season. There are at least two outcomes, both quite possible, that could doom either candidate.
If Mr. Trump blows himself up on stage and comes across as a raging narcissist obsessed with the 2020 election and the attempts by Democrats to destroy him through legal machinations, he will probably forfeit his early lead in the battleground states and lose once again to Joe Biden regardless of how well or poorly Mr. Biden performs.
If Mr. Biden wilts after an hour or so on the stage, begins to exhibit all the symptoms of cognitive debility that he has frequently displayed in public appearances, and generally gives the appearance of a man who belongs in a rest home rather than in the White House, while Mr. Trump maintains an uncharacteristically placid demeanor, I suspect that the Democrats will find a way to ease Mr. Biden out of the race and replace him with someone else. To leave him in the campaign after a disastrous performance in the debate would likely be political suicide for the Democrats in November.
If Mr. Trump does well and Mr. Biden manages to finish the evening without committing any fatal gaffes, nothing much will change in the polls, and we'll probably be making these same observations prior to the second debate. In other words, the debate, and the election, seem at this point to be Mr. Trump's to lose.
