No Left Turns offers a good analysis of the electoral college numbers and why they break in the President's favor:
Steve Hayward notes the Riley Poll found that Bush is leading among likely voters in Oregon 48-43% (a month ago in a Riley poll it was Bush 46-45%) and Oregon may well be shaky for Kerry. Gore won Oregon by only 3,000 votes in 2000. Steve may well be right and this leads to a small thought.
Along with Oregon keep your eye on the following states won by Gore in 2000: Wisconsin (by circa 5,000 votes), Iowa (by 4,000 votes), and New Mexico (by 400 votes). The short of it is that should Kerry lose any one of these states, he can't be elected because there is no serious movement in his direction in any state that Bush won in 2000! To repeat what you already know: Kerry has to take every state Gore took plus add one that Bush won.
For a while the Kerry campaign thought they had a chance to take Missouri (no) or North Carolina (no) or maybe even Lousiana (no). Although they are pretending that they have a chance in Nevada and Colorado, I don't see it. Now they are in the position of having to struggle just to keep what Gore had!
This is what the elite media means when they say that the battleground states have shrunk to about eight or nine; Kerry's opportunities are progressively more limited. Bush is ahead in most polls in Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico (and now Oregon?). It is not yet a serious argument for Democrats (or NBC or CNN) to make that the race is so close in Colorado or Nevada or Ohio that Kerry has a serious chance. Bush leads in all three (although Zogby shows Kerry up by one point in Nevada, and there is a bit of variation of polls in Ohio).
Please note the latest poll from New Jersey: the Fairleigh Dickinson University poll finds Kerry leading 44-42% among decided voters, but "when leaners are included in the race" it is 46-46%. This explains why Bush is heading to New Jersey (and why is he going to Michigan, I wonder?).
How would I advise Kerry, given all this? Plant yourself in Ohio for the next two weeks, it's your only shot (and yet it may not be enough even if you take Ohio). If Bush takes Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Iowa (7), New Mexico (5), Oregon (7) and--maybe--even New Jersey (15) for a total of 44 electoral votes, it doesn't matter if Kerry takes Ohio (or Bush could just replace the 20 electoral votes lost with Ohio with Wisonsin (10), Iowa (7), and New Mexico (5).
There is too much territory for Kerry to cover and he will not be able to do it. It doesn't matter how much CBS and the others try to cover this up. Take a look at the useful map with the latest state polls at Tripias and all the useful information at Realclear politics.
In one sense the election is close, but in the only sense that counts it's an uphill struggle for Senator Kerry. The real problem will be if the election is close in several states like it was in 2000. If it is, the results of the election will not be known for weeks as we are put through counts, recounts, claims of fraud, and all manner of lawsuits. Let's hope it's not close.
