According to Pinsker's summary, what the Times article reports is that of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot.
All told, Democrats lost about 2.1 million registered voters between the 2020 and 2024 elections in the 30 states, along with Washington, D.C., that allow people to register with a political party. (In the remaining 20 states, voters do not register with a political party.) Republicans gained 2.4 million.
The flight away from the Democratic Party is occurring in battleground states, and in both blue and red states.
Moreover, Republicans went from roughly one-third of newly registered voters under 45 to a majority in the last six years. They're also gaining among both men and women, as well as among Hispanics.
Pinsker has a lot more commentary at the link. He closes with a quote from the Times article which cites an election expert who believes the trend is not a temporary fluke:
“I don’t want to say, ‘The death cycle of the Democratic Party,’ but there seems to be no end to this,” said Michael Pruser, who tracks voter registration closely as the director of data science for Decision Desk HQ, an election-analysis site. “There is no silver lining or cavalry coming across the hill. This is month after month, year after year.”There's nothing permanent in political alignments, but at least in the near term (2026, 2028), things aren't looking good for Democrats.
Any hope that the drift away from the Democratic Party would end organically with Mr. Trump’s election has been dashed by the limited data so far in 2025. There are now roughly 160,000 fewer registered Democrats than on Election Day 2024, according to L2’s data, and 200,000 more Republicans.
“It’s going to get worse before it gets better.”
