Friday, June 12, 2009

If Israel Strikes

It seems almost a foregone conclusion now that President Obama has switched his position on Iranian nuclear weapons from "unacceptable" to "acceptable" - having learned that the "unacceptable" position entails the use of force - that Israel will strike Iran to take them out. Former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton writing for the Wall Street Journal outlines Iran's most likely responses to such an attack:

  1. Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz.
  2. Iran cuts its own oil exports to raise world prices.
  3. Iran attacks U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.
  4. Iran increases support for global terrorism.
  5. Iran launches missile attacks on Israel.
  6. Iran unleashes Hamas and Hezbollah against Israel.

For one reason or another Mr. Bolton thinks most of these to be unlikely assuming there's a scintilla of sanity still left in Tehran. He's of the opinion that 6), another proxy war waged through Hamas and Hezbollah, is the likeliest outcome.

His discussion of these options is fascinating.