Thursday, January 13, 2022

Lucky Guess?

In a piece at Evolution News Casey Luskin lists a dozen of the parameters of the universe that must be fine-tuned in order for the universe to be life-permitting:
  • Strength of Electromagnetic Force: 1 part in 25
  • Strength of Strong Nuclear Force: 1 part in 200
  • Mass of Quark: 1 part in 10^21
  • Value of Gravitational Constant: 1 part in 10^35
  • Value of Cosmological Constant: 1 part in 10^90
  • Ratio of the masses of a neutron to the proton: 1 part in 1000
  • Ratio of the Weak Nuclear Force to the Strong Nuclear Force: 1 part in 10,000
  • Ratio of the Electromagnetic Force to Gravity: 1 part in 10^40
  • Cosmic Mass Density at Planck Time: 1 part in 10^60
  • Initial Expansion Rate of the Universe: 1 part in 10^17
  • Initial Density of the Universe: 1 part in 10^24
  • Initial Entropy of the Early Universe: 1 part in 10 to the power of 10^123
Is it just a coincidence that these parameters have precisely the values that allow for the existence of a universe that can sustain life? Unimaginably minute changes in some of these (especially the last) would've resulted in either no universe at all or one in which living things were impossible.

In their book A Fortunate Universe, from which Luskin got many of these values, Geraint Lewis and Luke Barnes use this analogy: A bank vault is robbed. The armored door was opened without force; the robbers used the access code which is a twelve digit number. The police arrive on the scene.

One officer says, "Maybe they guessed the code." The second replies, "No way. There are a trillion combinations. The system shows they entered the code correctly on the first attempt. Surely the odds against that are astronomical." The first then says, "But it's still possible, right?"

Yes, it's technically possible but what rational person would think that a lucky guess is the explanation for how the thieves got into the vault?

The obvious conclusion is that the robbers somehow knew the code. No reasonable person would think they guessed it on the very first attempt, or that they would've guessed it no matter how many attempts they made.

The analogy to the fine-tuning of the universe is this: Of all the possible combinations to the vault only one would allow access. Of all the possible values for the twelve parameters Luskin lists, only the values they actually have, or values exceedingly close to the actual values, will allow for a life-permitting universe.

Believing that our universe is nevertheless the accidental, coincidental product of mindless forces is like believing that the robbers accidentally, coincidentally guessed the combination to the vault.

Yet it seems like the alternative is to assume that the universe is the product of an intelligent creator, an alternative repugnant to those who adamantly cling to a naturalistic worldview.

So, are there other plausible options or is an intelligent creator the best explanation for cosmic fine-tuning? Luskin looks at the plausibility of other options in his article which I encourage you to read if this topic interests you.