Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Why Israel Will (Almost Surely) Attack Iran

The question, it seems to me, is no longer whether Israel will attack Iran. The question is when and how hard. Iran's spokespersons have made it impossible for the Israelis not to launch a preemptive strike. For example, last Sunday Iran's top military commander proclaimed his government's dedication to the annihilation of the nation of Israel:
The Iranian nation is standing for its cause and that is the full annihilation of Israel, Maj. Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi said in a speech to a defense gathering Sunday in Tehran.

While many within the Islamic regime, including President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, have often stated that Israel should be annihilated, until Sunday no one in the nation’s leadership has announced Iran’s determined intention to carry it out.

In a statement, American Jewish Committee executive director David Harris said Firouzabadi’s comments “should also put to rest, once and for all, the fanciful views of those remaining political leaders, diplomats, and journalists who contend that Iran is a ‘peaceful’ nation which has simply been ‘misunderstood’ by the global community.”

The mullahs leading Iran’s Islamic regime believe in the messianic return of the 12th and last Islamic messiah, Imam Mahdi. According to Shiite belief, Mahdi will reappear at the time of Armageddon, and his coming — as the Iranian documentary “The Coming Is Upon Us” revealed – will be triggered by the destruction of Israel.
Lest there be any doubt about the global ambitions of the fanatics and psychopaths who hold power in Tehran consider this statement by a prominent Iranian imam:
In a recent statement, Grand Ayatollah Jafar Sobhani, a religious authority and a top Iranian “Twelver Shia” — one who believes in the 12th Imam — addressed the future world described in the Quran. “The Quran is the proof that the world will be controlled and managed by the forces of truth and that there will be one government ruling everyone throughout the world,” he explained.

The Quran promises — twice — the worldwide rule of Islam and its victory over all other religions, Sobhani said, and this will only happen when the last descendant of Muhammad, Imam Mahdi, returns and takes the rule of Islam across the world.

Ayatollah Khamenei referred to this prophecy in a recent speech. “In light of the realization of the divine promise by almighty God,” he said, “the Zionists and the Great Satan [America] will soon be defeated. Allah’s promise will be delivered, and Islam will be victorious.”
The article also includes this bit of Muslim kumbayah:
In February, conservative Muslims writing on a website tied to Khamenei told their followers that the Quran’s promises were “a ‘jurisprudential justification’ to kill all the Jews and annihilate Israel, and in that, the Islamic government of Iran must take the helm.”
When it is the stated purpose of a nation to annihilate another and when they're working feverishly to produce the weapons that will make that possible, the intended victims would have to be insane to sit back and wait to see if it happens. I can't see the Israelis doing that.

I wonder, though, how hard they will hit Iran. Will they seek to decapitate the regime so that the current leadership is not left in place to resume progress toward their goal after what might be a temporary setback or will Israel do what is necessary to insure that Iran is not in a position to do them further harm?

Machiavelli wrote that “the injury that is to be done to a man ought to be of such a kind that one does not stand in fear of revenge.” I suspect the Israelis agree.