Political prognostications are always risky, especially months before an election and especially when the prognosticator doesn't know what he's talking about. Nevertheless, I will venture one. I think that, despite polls showing a very close race for the presidency, Bush will win in November, perhaps impressively, at least in the electoral college, for the following reason: In order for any Democrat to win he/she has to have a good African-American turnout. In this race, with the numbers so close, it is going to be essential that Kerry gets a big boost from minority voters. Unfortunately for him this demographic often doesn't turn out at the polls unless they are very excited about a candidate. Clinton excited them, but Kerry is as dull and uninspiring as the teacher played by Ben Stein in Ferris Beuhler's Day Off. They may respond to a pollster's query by saying they will vote for Kerry in November, but when it comes time to cast their ballots I doubt that many blue-collar Blacks will bestir themselves to make the trip to the polls to support the highborn Senator from Massachusetts. Throw in a Nader candidacy, and Kerry has a real uphill slog in store for him this Fall.
A lot can happen between now and then to upset this prediction, of course, but if things continue on their present trajectory, Kerry will find it difficult to energize minority voters and he will lose a lot of the Deaniacs to Nader as he tries to move toward the center on Iraq. About the only voters he can be sure of getting are hard-core Bush-haters since he hasn't given anyone else much of a reason to vote for him. There are a lot of people who despise Bush in the Democrat party, but can there be enough to swing the election for Kerry? I doubt it, but I guess we'll see.
