Bill Roggio The Fourth Rail has a very perceptive piece of analysis of the increasingly likely conflict with Iran from the Iranians' point of view. It's based on an article written by a University of Tehran professor of political science who writes about how Iran would fight a military invader. Roggio replies by saying:
The Iranian military leadership is misguided if they believe they can out-maneuver, out-think, out-man or out-fight American forces in a conventional fight. One thing that should be clear is that America's military has no peer on the conventional battlefield. The American military's command, control, communications, information, weapons and technology are several levels of magnitude greater than Iranian capabilities. If the "certain weaknesses" the Iranians are referring to is the soft logistical chain, then they are not accounting for the U.S. military's adaptations to this problem. The Army has learned valuable lessons in Iraq, and is armoring supply vehicles and increasing the training of support personnel, many of whom also have combat experience in Iraq. And unlike Iran's military, American forces are seasoned combat veterans accustomed to the difficulties of war.
In reality, Iran's ability to strike back lies exclusively in guerrilla warfare, terrorist attacks and its missile technology. Iran's true threats lay in its unconventional assets: Hezbollah, ballistic missiles, and chemical and biological weapons arsenals. Iran's missiles would be able to strike American forces in the region, and tipped with chemical or biological agents, pose a great threat.
Dr. Afrasiabi confirms that these unconventional forces are a key to Iran's strategy to counter an American military advance. Interestingly enough, Dr. Afrasiabi neglects to mention the potential of utilizing Hezbollah as an overseas proxy against American military and civilian installations, which should not be discounted. Nor does he mention unleashing al Qaeda personnel who have been sheltered in Iran. Perhaps this would be a tacit admission of Iran's complicity in global terrorism.
Roggio notes that the American military squeeze on Iran is having serious economic consequences and he concludes that the mullahs can't endure this situation indefinitely:
America's policy of containment is frightening the Iranian mullahs, and is forcing them to consider open confrontation with the United States military. Dr. Afrasiabi's analysis indicates that the Iranian military is planning to fight the last war (Lebanon, Iraq) but is not considering America's ability to adapt to weaknesses exposed in Iraq. Iran's advantages include the expected diplomatic pressure leveraged by the international community, Hezbollah operations overseas, a potential nuclear threat, and America's lack of forces at hand at the moment. Due to American military superiority, Iran would be reduced to fighting an unconventional war, much like the current insurgency in Iraq, but American forces have gained valuable combat experience in theater. Iran's ability to launch missiles undetected would not last forever, and the advent of armed unmanned aerial vehicles, which were not present in the First Gulf War, will reduce Iran's ability to launch at will. Any use of WMD will have serious consequences, and will be met in kind. No doubt an American campaign in Iran would be difficult and costly, but allowing Iran to become a nuclear power would have a chilling effect on reshaping the Middle East to reduce the threat of state sponsored terrorism.
Iran has an out - disavow support for Hezbollah, turn over al Qaeda sheltered in-country, and quit their nuclear program. The choice is up to the mullahs, but based on their past history of open defiance to America's presence in the Middle East, the likelihood of Iran backing down from a conflict is low.
The longer we are tied down in Iraq the more time Tehran has to put together a nuclear deterrent. This is one of the main reasons why Iran is working so hard to prevent Iraq from stabilizing. The mullahs prefer to see Iraq descend into chaos for several reasons but chief among them is that it will keep the United states occupied and deter them from getting involved in similar adventures in Iran.
