Earlier this year I predicted the bankruptcy of General Motors. Actually, I should have included Ford also. A year ago GM's stock was selling for $45 per share. Today it's at $24. At the same time, Ford was at $15 per share but closed the week falling below $8. I wouldn't be surprised to see either file for bankruptcy and be bought by China.
Here's another prediction: US will be at war with Iran in less than a year.
Why? Well it might be because Iran is considered to be among the "axis of evil". It might be that evidence is discovered that implicates Iran in Iraq. Or, at least, these excuses could be used to justify the need for an offensive.
But there's another reason that we wouldn't hear about yet much more likely. From the link:
Iran's decision to set up an oil and associated derivatives market next year has generated a great deal of interest.
This is primarily because of Iran's reported intention to invoice energy contracts in euros rather than dollars.
The contention that this could unseat the dollar's dominance as the de facto currency for oil transactions may be overstated, but this has not stopped many commentators from linking America's current political disquiet with Iran to the proposed Iranian Oil Bourse (IOB).
The proposal to set up the IOB was first put forward in Iran's Third Development Plan (2000-2005). Mohammad Javad Assemipour, who heads the project, has said that the exchange will strive to make Iran the main hub for oil deals in the region and that it should be operational by March 2006.
...
It is primarily the US which stands to lose out from any move away from the petrodollar status quo, it is the world's largest importer of oil and a move away from invoicing oil in dollars to euros will undoubtedly have a negative effect on its economy.
Fewer nations would be willing to hold the dollar in reserve which would cause a significant devaluation and result in the loss seigniorage revenues. In addition, US energy-related companies stand to lose out as they will be unable to participate in the bourse due to the longstanding American trade embargo on Iran.
Saddam Hussein did essentially the same thing in Iraq when he demanded that Iraq oil be paid for with euros. Look where that got him.
Personally, I hope I'm wrong on both of these predictions because none of this would be good for the US.
