Saturday, February 11, 2006

Aligning With the Strong Horse

There's not been much in the news lately about developments in Iraq, but Bill Roggio is on the job to update us about what is transpiring between the Sunnis and al-Qaeda in Anbar province. Here's his lead:

Further details emerge about the developing rifts between the native elements of the Iraqi insurgency and al-Qaeda and their Islamist allies. Army Major General Rick Lynch, the spokesman for Multinational Force Iraq, acknowledged the infighting has occurred in Anbar province; "Many times these citizens are urged by their local tribal leaders to rid the area of the insurgent influence... In Fallujah and Ramadi, citizens have established checkpoints to keep insurgents out and six al Qaeda leaders have been killed in the area since September."

According to Maj. Gen. Lynch, the increase in tips from over a year ago has skyrocketed by 240 times the number reported last year. The Department of Defense reports "Iraqi civilians provided more than 1,300 tips to coalition and Iraqi security forces... That is a huge improvement from the 47 tips received in January 2005... Of all the valid calls received by the Ministry of Interior's national tips hotline, 98 percent provided actionable intelligence... Most calls are about terrorist activity... but calls also come in about kidnapping, murder and other criminal activity."

Knight Ridder Newspapers indicates that neighborhood watches are forming in the Baghdad neighborhood of Hai al-Salam, which consists of "Shiite Muslims, Sunni Muslims and Christians." The increase in "kidnappings, assassinations and random violence" pushed the residents to band together across sectarian lines and defends their neighborhoods. When the Iraqi Army and police were unable to provide the security needed for the neighborhood, the residents of Hai al-Salam "erected roadblocks and checkpoints and put neighborhood men to work as guards."

The conventional media wisdom is that Iraq is unravelling faster than we can keep it tied up, but, unsurprisingly, the conventional media wisdom is evidently wrong. To be sure, it is taking longer to bring Iraq under control than most in the administration thought that it would, and it's virtually certain that more Americans have died than had to. Yet, despite the awful cost in blood and treasure, something unprecedented in human history is happening in that tragic land.

A diverse, mostly Arab nation of twenty five million people, riven by ethnic and religious animosities, is gradually shaking off the dysfunctional habits formed over decades of oppression and moving slowly but inexorably toward a stable democracy. It really is remarkable, and if it does happen, and if Afghanistan continues to develop along the lines already established, George Bush will ultimately be regarded as the most visionary foreign policy leader in the history of the free world.