This might be an intentional leak to concentrate the minds of the mullahs in Tehran, or it might mean that Iran is in for a couple of rough nights sometime in the next year or so:
Strategists at the Pentagon are drawing up plans for devastating bombing raids backed by submarine-launched ballistic missile attacks against Iran's nuclear sites as a "last resort" to block Teheran's efforts to develop an atomic bomb. Central Command and Strategic Command planners are identifying targets, assessing weapon-loads and working on logistics for an operation, the Sunday Telegraph has learnt.
They are reporting to the office of Donald Rumsfeld, the defence secretary, as America updates plans for action if the diplomatic offensive fails to thwart the Islamic republic's nuclear bomb ambitions. Teheran claims that it is developing only a civilian energy programme. "This is more than just the standard military contingency assessment," said a senior Pentagon adviser. "This has taken on much greater urgency in recent months."
The prospect of military action could put Washington at odds with Britain which fears that an attack would spark violence across the Middle East, reprisals in the West and may not cripple Teheran's nuclear programme. But the steady flow of disclosures about Iran's secret nuclear operations and the virulent anti-Israeli threats of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has prompted the fresh assessment of military options by Washington. The most likely strategy would involve aerial bombardment by long-distance B2 bombers, each armed with up to 40,000lb of precision weapons, including the latest bunker-busting devices. They would fly from bases in Missouri with mid-air refuelling.
The Bush administration has recently announced plans to add conventional ballistic missiles to the armoury of its nuclear Trident submarines within the next two years. If ready in time, they would also form part of the plan of attack. Teheran has dispersed its nuclear plants, burying some deep underground, and has recently increased its air defences, but Pentagon planners believe that the raids could seriously set back Iran's nuclear programme.
We are deeply concerned about the consequences of a military strike on Iran. If a dozen simple drawings can throw the Muslim world into an apoplectic rage imagine what a massive bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities would do. Oil shipments from the region will probably be stopped and suicide terrorism will skyrocket. Worse, if it's just a bombing mission with no invasion and regime change then the problem will just be deferred, not solved, but if there is an invasion it would doubtless become an extremely ugly affair.
Nevertheless, John McCain is correct when he says that as bad as a last-resort military strike might be, a nuclear-armed Iran would be far worse.
