With everything that's going on with the economy, there hasn't been much focus lately on what we'll do if Iran doesn't relent in its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Much of the discussion there has been has emphasized reasons why military measures would be inadequate and ineffective. Retired four-star Air Force General Chuck Wald, however, disagrees with these assessments. General Wald was the air commander for the initial stages of Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan and deputy commander of the U.S. European Command. He has an article in the Wall Street Journal that outlines how the military could be used to supplement diplomatic pressure on Tehran and, if diplomacy fails, how it could be credibly employed to spare the world the specter of nuclear arms in the hands of a terrorist state that sees it as their religious duty to precipitate the end of the world. Here's some of what he writes:
There has been a lack of serious public discussion of the military tools available to us. Any mention of them is either met with accusations of warmongering or hushed with concerns over sharing sensitive information. It is important to discuss, within legal limits, such a serious issue as openly as possible. Discussion strengthens our democracy and dispels misinformation.
The military can play an important role in solving this complex problem without firing a single shot. Publicly signaling serious preparation for a military strike might obviate the need for one if deployments force Tehran to recognize the costs of its nuclear defiance. Mr. Obama might consider, for example, the deployment of additional carrier battle groups and minesweepers to the waters off Iran, and the conduct of military exercises with allies.
If such pressure fails to impress Iranian leadership, the U.S. Navy could move to blockade Iranian ports. A blockade-which is an act of war-would effectively cut off Iran's gasoline imports, which constitute about one-third of its consumption. Especially in the aftermath of post-election protests, the Iranian leadership must worry about the economic dislocations and political impact of such action.
Should these measures not compel Tehran to reverse course on its nuclear program, and only after all other diplomatic avenues and economic pressures have been exhausted, the U.S. military is capable of launching a devastating attack on Iranian nuclear and military facilities.
Many policy makers and journalists dismiss the military option on the basis of a false sense of futility. They assume that the U.S. military is already overstretched, that we lack adequate intelligence about the location of covert nuclear sites, and that known sites are too heavily fortified.
Such assumptions are false.
General Wald then goes on to discuss the pros and cons of a series of military strikes on Iranian facilities. It's quite interesting.
I wonder: Given that President Obama's political base is the progressive left, and given that this base is strongly opposed to military interventions, what are the chances that Tehran will make a calculation that Mr. Obama would not do more than use the military as a bluff? If he did set up a blockade or bomb the Iranian weapons facilities would the progressives abandon their principles and find some excuse to justify acquiesing to war or would they oppose Obama the way they opposed President Bush?
We'll see.
RLC
