I'm not as confident as Sammin that impeachment will fail, but I do think the Democrats are not really trying to remove the president from office. I think they have a different strategy. In any case, here are the four reasons Sammin gives:
- Unlike Watergate and the Clinton impeachment there's no cover-up. The administration has released all the relevant documents for everyone to see.
- Nor was there any conspiracy.
- The public suffers from impeachment fatigue after two years of breathless assurances that the Mueller probe was certain to result in an impeachment.
- The public is also weary of the Democrats' persistence in "crying wolf" every time the president sneezes.
The radicalism of the House Democrats and their media allies has made it hard to take them seriously without more conclusive evidence of presidential wrongdoing. Resistance folk on the internet are energized by this latest incident, and Trump’s more fervent partisans are too, but most people are dead tired of all of the lawfare and 24-hour news cycle argle-bargle.As I said, I doubt that there'll be a serious effort to remove the president from the White House. I don't think any but the most rabid progressive Trump haters really want to give Mike Pence a year as an incumbent to win over the loyalty of Trump's base. An incumbent would be much more difficult for Democrats to unseat in 2020.
They’ll watch—we all should—but for now the Zelensky affair looks unlikely to be the knockout blow the left has been seeking.
What the Democrats are apparently trying to do is not remove Trump from office, but rather through their relentless investigations and resistance, they're trying to erode his support among Independents and wear him down physically and mentally to the point that he loses the 2020 election to an Elizabeth Warren or someone of similar ideological pedigree. Impeachment, though it would not remove Mr. Trump from office, would aid them in their effort to discredit, demoralize and weaken him.
In fact, were I a paranoid conspiracy theorist (which I'm not) I might even go so far as to say that the constant attacks on Trump are being orchestrated by Clinton allies not only to cripple him, but, with this latest attack over the Ukraine business involving Joe Biden's abuse of power, also cripple Democratic front-runner Biden.
The hope among the Clinton operatives would be that with Biden out of the way and no satisfactory Democratic candidate emerging from the primaries, Hillary could be drafted at the convention to run against and beat a severely weakened Trump in a rematch of 2016.
You heard it here first.