Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Course Correction

Robert Kagan and William Kristol call for the only change in course in Iraq that makes sense - send in more troops:

In Iraq, US policies have steadily undermined public confidence that America has either the will or capacity to provide the security Iraqis need. So they have turned to their own sectarian armed groups for protection. That, and not historical inevitability or the alleged failings of the Iraqi people, has brought Iraq closer to civil war.

These policies have been equally damaging in the US. The American people have rightly judged that the administration is floundering in Iraq and, worse, is not committed to doing what is necessary to succeed. This perception undoubtedly played a large part in last week's mid-term election. Now, many Americans are looking to the Iraq Study Group, the commission headed by James Baker and Lee Hamilton, for a face-saving, bipartisan way to withdraw from Iraq as quickly as possible. The great irony is that with nothing new to offer, the Baker commission's forthcoming report - if it takes the shape most observers predict - will probably suffer the same fate as similar past efforts.

There is a popular theory that the prospect of US withdrawal will force Iraqis to reach an accommodation with one another. This would be more plausible had it not been disproved by three years of painful experience. Instead of looking for a face-saving way to lose in Iraq, President Bush could finally demand of his top advisers a strategy to succeed: provide the US force levels necessary to achieve even minimal political objectives. This could begin by increasing US troops in Iraq by at least 50,000 in order to clear and hold Baghdad without shifting troops from other parts of Iraq. These operations could then be expanded into areas of insurgency. This strategy would not stabilise the country right away but could secure Iraq's vital centre and provide real hope for progress.

We have two realistic options in Iraq. Either quit or win. If we're going to quit we should do it now, with all the calamitous consequences such a course of action would entail for the people of that region, before any more Americans lose life or limb. If we're going to win then we should send in the manpower necessary to accomplish the task and get it done. The Republicans lost the Congress partly because the Bush administration has given the impression that they've made the decision to opt for a third course - to neither quit nor win. The American people quite rightly have no patience for the ineptitude that kind of "strategic thinking" exposes.